Does asymmetric nexus exist between agricultural land and the housing market? Evidence from non-linear ARDL approach

Abstract

Expectedly, urbanization is often associated with constant degradation of natural habitat. In most cases, as demand for housing increases, natural habitat like agricultural land, forestry, and water bodies gradually gives way to building structures. Against this backdrop, the current study investigates the asymmetric nexus of agricultural land and housing market vis-à-vis house prices. The study employed the yearly data from 1976 to 2015 for the case of Sweden and used economic policy uncertainty (EPU) as a control variable in non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach. The finding notes a significant and positive short- and long-run relationship between housing price and agricultural land especially when there is a negative shock on agricultural land. But when there is a negative shock on EPU, the impact on housing price is significant and negative for both short run and long run. While an asymmetric long-run relationship is significant and positive between EPU and housing price, such significant occurrence do not exist for agricultural land. Hence, in meeting housing demand and mitigating an escalated growth in house prices, implementation of effective land use policy is encouraged.

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