How to feed the world by 2050? Recent breakthrough boosts plant growth by 40 percent

User David B (H/T) notes: So if the gene editing can capture part of the 30% calorie loss to photorespiration, and if CO2 doubles by 2050, this looks like a win/win for those worried about food insecurity. And I wish I would be around to see how much greener the planet would become. From EurekAlert!…

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NASA hides page saying the Sun was the primary climate driver, and clouds and particles are more important than greenhouse gases

 ZeroHedge asks:  What the hell are NASA Hiding?

The NASA site used to have a page titled "What are the primary forcings of the Earth system?". In 2010 this page said that the Sun is the major driver of Earth's climate, that it controls all the major aspects, and we may be on the cusp of an ice age. Furthermore NASA Science said that clouds, albedo and aerosol behaviour can have more powerful cooling effects that exceed the warming effect of CO2.

Today that page says Share the science and stay connected,  and "Access Denied".

https://go.nasa.gov/2trEx8w

 

 Whatever you do, don't tell the world that NASA says the Sun is more important than CO2.

The Wayback Machine captured the same NASA "Primary Climate Forcings" link in 2010.

Click to enlarge.

 

Here's the text from the original page (my bolding).

NASA 2010: What are the primary forcings of the Earth system?

The Sun is the primary forcing of Earth's climate system. Sunlight warms our world. Sunlight drives atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. Sunlight powers the process of photosynthesis that plants need to grow. Sunlight causes convection which carries warmth and water vapor up into the sky [...]

Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote cast)

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The Green New Deal Isn’t Just About Energy, It’s Also About Controlling What Americans Eat

From The Daily Caller Michael Bastasch | Energy Editor The Green New Deal seems to embrace the anti-beef and dairy industry sentiment of the environmental left. Green New Dealers want to remake American society, including how to produce and eat food. "I think it's pretty clear they want to change people's consumption habits," said one…

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Tucker Carlson: Green New Deal is a religious document. It punishes America for the sins of its prosperity

https://fxn.ws/2Sy3qhB By Tucker Carlson For decades now, you have been hearing about the threat that global climate change poses to this country and to the world. Al Gore warned you about all of it in a bestselling book and an award-winning documentary. Bill Nye, the science guy has done a bunch of Internet videos on [...]

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Liberal NYT Columnist Brooks Blasts Green New Deal: Democrats To ‘The Left Of Che Guevara’

http://bit.ly/2GtWJqz By RYAN SAAVEDRA Liberal New York Times columnist David Brooks slammed the Democratic Party during an interview on "PBS NewsHour" on Friday, saying that the party is to the left of Marxist Che Guevara. 1.00 Trump Slams Democrats' 'Brand New Demand' Amid Border Negotiations "Where do you see the Democratic field sort of shaking out [...]

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The replication crisis may also be a theory crisis

From Ars Technica Theory protects from "personal intuitions and culturally biased folk theories." Cathleen O'Grady – 2/16/2019, 11:00 AM A jumbled jigsaw puzzle, AKA the state of theory in the behavioral sciences. A replication crisis has called into question results from behavioral (and other) sciences. Complaints have focused on poor statistical methods, the burying of…

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Government Whitewashing Gummer’s £600,000 Green Scandal

By Paul Homewood

The inevitable cover up has begun, as Guido reports:

 

Lord Deben's scandalous £600,000 conflicts of interests over vast payments funnelled to his firm, Sancroft International, from 'Green' corporations continues to be swept under the rug. Conor Burns submitted a written question earlier this week over Deben's conflicts of interests, receiving a vapid response back from Energy Minister Claire Perry:

"The Chair of the Committee on Climate Change declared his interests with Sancroft International as part of his appointment process in 2012.

"We have received assurances from the Chief Executive of the Committee on Climate Change on their processes for managing potential conflicts of interests. These include a clear policy on conflicts of interests, publication of members' interests, and actively inviting information on actual or perceived conflicts as the first agenda item at each Committee meeting."

Perry has not done her homework – what Deben actually told MPs during his Pre-Appointment Hearing in 2012 was that:

"almost everything that it does has no connection with the Committee on Climate Change, but there was one thing that I felt we ought to disengage from, and I said that."

Self-evidently Deben was not telling the whole truth given that £600,000 has now found its way to his company from big green businesses that Deben uses his powerful position as Climate Change Committee Chair to persistently lobby for handouts of vast sums of taxpayers' cash to.

Cursory research reveals that Deben appears to have failed to declare his Sancroft interest more than 15 times in the House of Lords. Guido hears that Tory whips have been discouraging MPs from making a fuss about it, despite the fact that the Commissioner for Standards in the House of Lords has opened a formal inquiry into Deben's behaviour. Why is the Government trying to cover up for him?

https://order-order.com/2019/02/14/government-whitewashing-lord-debens-600000-green-scandal/

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Green New Deal: Some Democrats on the fence – ‘Reluctant to endorse plan that would remake economy’

http://bit.ly/2BD28Y6 A resolution outlining the goals of the Green New Deal capped off its first week of a somewhat messy rollout with mixed reviews, even from typically Democratic strongholds like labor unions. In the House, the top two Democrats who would oversee any legislation that comes out of the plan have remained reluctant to fully [...]

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Hurricanes & climate change: detection

by Judith Curry

I am preparing a new Special Report on Hurricanes and Climate Change.

This Report is easier than my Special Report on Sea Level and Climate Change.  Sea level and glaciers are very fast moving topics, whereas for hurricanes, the big picture conclusions haven't really changed in a decade.

The Table of Contents for the Report: [ HR outline ]

The topic of tropical cyclones and climate change  is regularly assessed by the IPCC and US National Assessment Reports, as well as by other expert reports under the auspices of the WMO, CLIVAR and other organizations.  With regards to the question: 'Why another assessment report on Hurricanes and Climate Change?' here is my response:

CFAN's Special Report on Hurricanes and Climate Change is distinguished from recent assessments by the following:

• a focus on hurricane aspects that contribute to landfall impacts
• an emphasis on geologic evidence and interpretation of natural variability
• an approach to 'detection and attribution' that does not rely on global climate models
• a perspective on future projections that accounts for uncertainties in climate models and also includes natural climate variability
• a longer format that allows for more in depth explanation suitable for a non-expert audience.

Basically, this Report is motivated by the needs of my clients in the energy and insurance sectors.  After grappling with this issue for the past 15 years, both from the perspective of a research scientist and the owner of a weather/climate services company (Climate Forecast Applications Network), I have a perspective that is somewhat different from other academic or government scientists addressing the problem of hurricanes and climate change.

I plan to make the full report available in May, I look forward to your feedback and suggestions.

In this post, I'll start with Chapter 3 on the observational datasets of hurricane variability and trends.  An additional 4 posts on this topic will provided in the coming weeks.

Historical variability and trends

Documenting the variability and trends of hurricane activity requires long and accurate data records. Historical information on hurricane activity is obtained from the following sources:

• satellite observations (since ~1966)
• aircraft instrumental observations (since 1944)
• surface-based instrumental observations – landfalls, ships (since the 1800's)
• historical reports

Over the years, the way that hurricanes have been observed has changed radically. As a result, many hurricanes are now recorded that would have been missed in the past. Furthermore, satellites are now able to continually assess wind speeds, thus recording peak wind speeds that may have been missed in pre-satellite days. Unfortunately, temporally inconsistent and potentially unreliable global historical data hinder detection of trends in tropical cyclone activity.

This Chapter assesses the variability of global and regional hurricanes over the entire available database. An assessment is provided as to whether we can detect any global or regional trends in hurricane activity from the available data.

3.1 Global

Reliable global hurricane data from satellite has been available since 1970, although inference of hurricane intensity is not judged to be reliable prior to 1980 (and in some regions, prior to 1988). Hurricane intensity is estimated from visible and infrared satellite observations through cloud patterns and infrared cloud top temperatures.

Figure 3.1 shows the time series since 1981 of total global hurricanes and major hurricanes. On average, each year there are about 47 hurricanes with about 20 reaching major hurricane status. Substantial year-to-year variability is seen, with a slight decreasing trend in the number of hurricanes and a slight increasing trend in the number of major hurricanes.

Figure 3.2 shows the time series since 1971 of the global Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (see Chapter 2 for a definition of ACE). As an integral of global hurricane frequency, duration and intensity, ACE shows greater decadal variation than does the number of hurricanes in Figure 3.1. No trend in ACE is seen, and the recent period of 2009 to 20015 was characterized by particularly low values of ACE.

 Figure 3.1: Global Hurricane Frequency (all & major) since 1981 – 12-month running means. The top time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached at least hurricane-force (maximum lifetime wind speed exceeds 64-knots). The bottom time series is the number of global tropical cyclones that reached major hurricane strength. Source: Maue (2018).Figure 3.2: Global and Northern Hemisphere Accumulated Cyclone Energy: 24 month running means. Note that the year indicated represents the value of ACE through the previous 24-months for the Northern Hemisphere (bottom line/gray boxes) and the entire global (top line/blue boxes). The area in between represents the Southern Hemisphere total ACE.
 Source: Maue (2018)

3.1.1 Intensity

Figure 3.1 indicates that the number of major hurricanes is increasing globally, whereas the total number of hurricanes is decreasing. An increase in hurricane intensity has long been hypothesized to occur as global sea surface temperatures increase.

Emanuel (2005) identified a trend since 1950 of increasing maximum hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI), focusing on hurricanes in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Shortly thereafter, Webster et al. (2005) showed that while the total number of hurricanes has not increased globally since 1970, the proportion (%) of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes had doubled, implying that the distribution of hurricane intensity has shifted towards more intense hurricanes.

Klotzbach and Landsea (2015) updated the Webster et al. (2005) analysis (Figure 3.3), with an additional 10 years of data and the availability of the International Best Tracks (IBTrACS) dataset, which reflects a cleaning up and homogenization of the data relative to what was used by Webster et al. Interpretation of any increase in the % of Cat 4/5 hurricanes depends on interpretation of the data quality, which Klotzbach and Landsea argue is an issue prior to 1988. Klotzbach and Landsea make a convincing argument that data prior to 1980 should not be used in trend analyses. The debate on the increase in % CAT4/5 hurricanes hinges on whether the data from 1985-1989 is of useful accuracy, since the large jump occurs between 1985-1989 and 1990-1995. The primary problem with the data between 1985 and 1987 is missed tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean, and a classification change in Northeast Pacific (both regions contribute a relatively small number to the total global tropical cyclone count).

To address concerns about the validity of intensity data from the earlier periods, Kossin et al. (2013) developed a new homogeneous satellite-derived dataset of hurricane intensity for the period 1982-2009. The lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) achieved by each reported storm is calculated and the frequency distribution of LMI is tested for changes over this period. Kossin et al. found that globally, the stronger tropical cyclones have become more intense at a rate of about +1 m/s per decade during the period (Figure 3.4), but the statistical significance of this trend is marginal. Significant increases in the strongest hurricanes have occurred in the North Atlantic and decreases in the Western North Pacific.

Figure 3.3. (a) Pentad total of the number of hurricanes that achieved a maximum intensity of each category grouping as delineated by the Saffir–Simpson scale. (b) As in (a), but for the percentage of total hurricanes achieving each category grouping. Klotzbach and Landsea (2015)

Figure 3.4. Plots of quantiles (mean to 0.9) of the lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of storms in the various tropical cyclone formation basins, from a homogenized satellite-based analysis of tropical cyclone intensity (1982–2009). Kossin et al. (2013).

3.1.2 Intensification

Apart from the issue of maximum lifetime intensity achieved by a hurricane, the rate of intensification of hurricanes is receiving increasing scrutiny.

A recent study showed the 95th percentile of 24-h intensity changes significantly increased in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic basin during the period 1986–2015 (Balaguru et al, 2018). The intensification rate increased significantly between 1977 and 2013 in the West Pacific (Mei et al, 2016). In both the Atlantic and West Pacific, the areas with the largest increase in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were collocated with the largest positive changes in intensification rates.

Bhatia et al. (2019) conducted a comprehensive analysis of global rates (excluding the Indian Ocean) of hurricane intensification for the period 1982-2009 (Figure 3.5). Evaluation of the global data is hampered by intensity analysis uncertainties, although the intensity uncertainty is very low for the North Atlantic. In the two most reliable long-term observational records available for hurricane intensity changes, the proportion of the highest 24-hour hurricane intensification significantly increased in the Atlantic between 1982 and 2009. Globally, a significant increase in hurricane intensification rates is seen in IBTrACS data but not in ADT-HURSAT (satellite-derived).

Figure 3.5 Quantile regression of 24-h intensity changes. Slope of the quantiles for 24-h intensity changes during the period 1982–2009. Slopes are shown for IBTrACS (a, c) and ADT-HURSAT (b, d) globally (a, b) and in the Atlantic basin (c, d). Source: Bhatia et al. (2019)

3.1.3 Tracks

Recent research has highlighted variation in the speed and location of hurricane tracks. These variations are significant in changing landfall locations and hurricane-induced rainfall.

Kossin (2018) showed that that tropical-cyclone translation speed (rate of forward motion) has decreased globally by 10 per cent over the period 1949-2016 (Figure 3.6). The global distribution of translation speed exhibits a clear shift towards slower speeds in the second half of the period.

This slowdown is found in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres but is stronger and more significant in the Northern Hemisphere, where the annual number of tropical cyclones is generally greater. The times series for the Southern Hemisphere exhibits a change-point around 1980 (Figure 3.6), but the reason for this is not clear. An overall slowdown while over water was found in every basin except the northern Indian Ocean. The largest slowdown was found in the western North Pacific Ocean and the region around Australia.Figure 3.6 Global (a) and hemispheric (b) time series of annual-mean tropical-cyclone translation speed and their linear trends. Grey shading indicates 95 percent confidence bounds. Source: Kossin (2018).

In addition to the global slowing of hurricane translation speed, there is evidence that hurricanes have migrated poleward in several regions. Migration in the western North Pacific was found to be large, which has had a substantial effect on regional hurricane-related hazard exposure.

Kossin et al. (2014) identified a pronounced poleward migration in the average latitude where tropical cyclones have achieved their lifetime-maximum intensity (LMI) over the period 1982-2012. The poleward trends are evident in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, with an average migration of tropical cyclone activity away from the tropics at a rate of about 1° latitude per decade. In the Northern Hemisphere, the western North Pacific shows the largest migration, with the North Atlantic showing essentially no trend.

Moon et al. (2015) suggested that the poleward migration is greatly influenced by regional changes in hurricane frequency associated with multi-decadal variability, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). Moon et al. found 92% of the poleward trend is a result of the frequency changes associated with multi-decadal variability.

Daloz et al. (2018) examined whether the poleward migration of hurricane lifetime-maximum intensity is associated with a poleward migration of hurricane genesis (formation). They found a shift toward greater average potential number of genesis at higher latitudes over most regions of the Pacific Ocean, which is consistent with a migration of tropical cyclone genesis towards higher latitudes. They also found significant poleward shifts in mean genesis position over the Pacific Ocean basins.

3.1.4 Rainfall

Walsh et al. (2015) concluded that for the globe, a detectable change in tropical cyclone-related rainfall has not been established by existing studies. However, satellite data is being increasingly used to assess tropical cyclone rainfall.

Kim and Ho (2018) examined the variation of hurricane rainfall area over the subtropical oceans using satellite radar precipitation data collected from 1998 to 2014. In the subtropics, higher translation speed and larger vertical wind shear significantly contribute to an increase in hurricane rainfall area by making horizontal rainfall distribution more asymmetric, while sea surface temperature rarely affects the fluctuation of hurricane rainfall area. They suggested that in the subtropics, unlike the tropics, atmospheric circulation conditions are likely more crucial to varying hurricane rainfall area than factors such as sea surface temperature.

3.3 North Atlantic

The North Atlantic has the best data quality of any of the regions. There is credible data on frequency and intensity since 1850, with the intensity data being most reliable since 1944, when aircraft reconnaissance flights began. Prior to the onset of satellite coverage in 1966, NOAA has adjusted total basin-wide counts upward based on historical records of ship track density. During years when fewer ships were making observations in a given region, hurricanes in that region were more likely to have been missed, or their intensity underestimated to be below hurricane strength, leading to a larger corresponding adjustment to the count for those years. These adjustment methods are cited in Knutson et al. (2010).

The impact of undercounting is illustrated in Figure 3.7, which compares the raw hurricane counts (green) with adjusted counts (orange) for the period 1878-2015. The sign of the long-term trend depends critically on the adjustment.

Figure 3.7. Time series for the period 1878-2015 of the total number North Atlantic hurricanes – unadjusted (green); adjusted (orange). The number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes is in red. Curves have been smoothed using a five-year average, plotted at the middle year. Source: https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-tropical-cyclone-activity

Figure 3.8 shows the yearly values for the adjusted time series since 1850, for total North Atlantic hurricane counts and major hurricane counts. While the number of major hurricanes prior to 1944 is probably undercounted, it is noteworthy that the number of major hurricanes during the 1950's and 1960's was at least as large as the last two decades.

Figure 3.8 Adjusted numbers of total Atlantic hurricanes (top) and major hurricanes (bottom). Source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comparison_table.html

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (Figure 3.9) and Power Dissipation Index (PDI) (Figure 3.10) provide integral measures of overall hurricane activity, with PDI providing greater weight to intensity. Values of ACE during the 1950's and 1960's are comparable to recent decades. Regarding PDI, the years 1926, 1934 and 1962 have PDI values as large as seen in 2004, 2005, 2017, although prior to 1944 intensity data is less reliable.

Figure 3.9   Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index for the Atlantic Ocean. Source: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comparison_table.html. Ourworldindata.org

Figure 3.10 Power Dissipation Index (PDI) for the North Atlantic From 1920-2018. Source: Ryan Maue.

All measures of Atlantic hurricane activity show a significant increase since 1970. However, high values of hurricane activity (comparable to the past two decades) were also observed during the 1950's and 1960's, and by some measures also in the late 1920's and 1930's.

3.4 Paleotempestology 

Hurricane data records for the past 40 years, or even the past 150 years, can present a misleading picture of range of variability of hurricane characteristics. Paleotempestology is the study of storm occurrence prior to the historical record. This provides a way of establishing a longer climate baseline than the relatively short observational record.

Many types of geological proxies have been tested for reconstructing past hurricane activity, including hurricane-induced deposits of sediments in coastal lakes and marshes, stalagmites in caves, tree rings and corals. Since these studies typically focus on a specific geographic location, a caveat is that they cannot distinguish between regional trends and systematic changes in hurricane tracks.

In the Australian region, Haig et al. (2014) used oxygen isotopic analysis of stalagmite records to show that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 1,500 years. Their results reveal a multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia.

Nyberg et al. (2007) constructed a record of the frequency of major Atlantic hurricanes over the past 270 years using proxy records in the Caribbean from corals and a marine sediment core. The record indicates that the average frequency of major hurricanes decreased gradually from the 1760s until the early 1990s, reaching anomalously low values during the 1970s and 1980s.

Wallace et al. (2015) review paleo-trends in hurricane activity from sedimentary archives in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean and western North Atlantic margins. A site from Mattapoisett Marsh, Massachusetts shows that the total hurricane deposits have remained relatively constant between 2200 and 1000 years B.P. (before present). However, the last 800 years B.P. appear to have been a time of relatively frequent total storm deposition. A site from Laguna Playa Grande, Puerto Rico has reconstructed intense hurricanes occurring over the past 5000 years B.P., with prominent increases in activity observed during 4400 – 3600, 2500 – 1000, and 250 – 0 years B.P. In the Gulf of Mexico, while the overall frequency of events remained relatively constant over the 4500 year record, the frequency of high threshold events has varied considerably – periods of frequent intense hurricane strikes occurred during 3950 – 3650, 3600 – 3500, 3350 – 3250, 2800 – 2300, 1250 – 1150, 925 -875, and 750 – 650 years B.P.

Brandon et al. (2013) found a period of increased intense hurricane frequency between ~1700 and ~600 years B.P. and decreased intense storm frequency from ~2500 to ~1700 and ~600 years B.P. to the present.

There has not been a timeline or synthesis of these results for the past five thousand years, either regionally or for the entire coastal region. However, it is clear from these analyses that significant variability of landfall probabilities occurs on century to millennial time scales. There appears to have been a broad 'hyperactive period' from 3400 to 1000 years B.P. High activity persisted in the Gulf of Mexico until 1400 AD, with a shift to more frequent severe hurricane strikes from the Bahamas to New England occurring between 1400 and 1675 AD. Since 1760, there was a gradual decline in activity until the 1990's. 

3.4 Conclusions

Analyses of both global and regional variability and trends of hurricane activity provide the basis for detecting changes and understanding their causes.

The relatively short historical record of hurricane activity, and the even shorter record from the satellite era, is not sufficient to assess whether recent hurricane activity is unusual for during the current interglacial period. Results from paleotempestology analyses in the North Atlantic at a limited number of locations indicate that the current heightened activity is not unusual, with a 'hyperactive period' apparently occurring from 3400 to 1000 years before present.

Global hurricane activity since 1970 shows no significant trends in overall frequency, although there is some evidence of increasing numbers of major hurricanes and of an increase in the percentage of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

In the North Atlantic, all measures of hurricane activity have increased since 1970, although comparably high levels of activities also occurred during the 1950's and 1960's.

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Influence of solar activity on European rainfall

Dr. Sebastian Luening writes to advise us of this. Press Release Institute of Hydrography, Geoecology and Climate Sciences (IFHGK), www.ifhgk.org 15th February 2019 Influence of solar activity on European rainfall A balanced level of precipitation provides the basis for a wide range of economic and social activities in Europe. Particularly agriculture, drinking water supply and…

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Children’s Climate Change Strike Spreads to the USA

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Alexandria Villasenor, 13, hopes braving brutal polar vortex winter conditions by sitting outside UN Headquarters will inspire others in the US and China to join her school strike against global warming. How a 7th-grader's strike against climate change exploded into a movement By Sarah Kaplan February 16 at 10:00 AM…

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Killer Toast Strikes Again!

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Patsy Lacey

 

 

You can just see the death certificate now:

 

"CAUSE OF DEATH: Toast"

  

 

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6714141/Making-toast-exposes-people-toxic-air-pollution-standing-busy-traffic-junction.html

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Progressive State Climate Change Playbooks

From Roger Caiazza On December 12, 2018 the New York State Energy and Research Development Authority (NYSERDA) announced the availability of three "playbooks" produced by the U.S. Climate Alliance, a bipartisan coalition that includes 16 states and Puerto Rico, to address climate change and implement policies that advance the goals of the Paris Climate Accord.…

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Climate Proof Your Home–Says Daily Mail

By Paul Homewood

 

h/t Patsy Lacey

 

 It is time this nonsense was ended for once and for all.

Talking about the weather may be a long-standing British tradition, but designing our homes to suit the climate has only recently become commonplace.

The idea of 'climate-proofing' our homes has now become a priority for some, and with good reason.

Quite apart from short-term weather threats, with temperatures frequently going from freezing to double figures in a matter of days, there is a long-term need for action, too.

A report compiled by scientists and the Met Office, launched by Environment Secretary Michael Gove in November, says global warming might see average summer temperatures increase by 5.4c and winter norms rise 4.2c by 2070.

The country is likely to see more extreme weather in the form of wet winters, flooding and summer heatwaves — and even wildfires.

At the same time, there's an energy crisis brewing. Back in 2016, the Institute of Mechanical Engineers forecast that as soon as 2025, the demand for electricity could outstrip its supply by as much as 40 per cent chiefly because of the country's growing population.

So what can be done in our homes — now and in the future — to save energy, push down ever-increasing fuel bills, and engineer more eco-friendly long-term designs?

EASY SOLUTIONS

'Most households could save hundreds a year and improve their green credentials with simple measures', insists Stephen Naughtie, a London-based domestic energy consultant.

He suggests households irrigate gardens from a water butt: 'It costs £50 but if you're on a water meter, you could save £100 in just one hot summer.'

In addition, Naughtie says sealing draughts, insulating the loft and moving sofas away from radiators all make homes warmer without even turning the heating up.

Meanwhile a low-flow shower and ultra-low flush toilet can save a combined total of up to 15,000 litres of water per person per year. Water-efficient washing machines could save 5,000 litres of water annually per person. All of these could save up to £160 per year.

Solar shading in the form of shutters, curtains or reflective blinds over windows is another way to prevent homes overheating in the sun and so reducing the need for air conditioning.

LAWNED ROOFS

In the long-term more fundamental changes to our homes may be needed to fight climate change and energy shortages.

Hillarys, an interior design and house fittings company, says there are many big changes that house design is going through to prepare for global warming.

Tara Hall, spokesperson for Hillarys, says: 'We've looked at the practical and often simple measures that all UK homeowners can start making now to ensure their homes are able to withstand more extreme weather conditions.'

These include 'lawned' green roofs which absorb sunshine and reduce the temperature in summer while aiding thermal efficiency in winter by helping contain heat inside.

LOOK TO FUTURE

Harvesting rain water and passive cooling — the strategic placing of windows, doors and walls to keep spaces cool in summer and warm in winter — are also becoming increasingly common in new homes.

The Unique Property Group is designing homes at Cricklewood in North London to be 35 per cent more energy-efficient than planning requirements. It's building them in a factory then transporting in sections them to the site.

'The modules can be specially wrapped within the factory to provide a high grade thermal fabric … to get close to zero emissions,' explains Unique's managing director, Sonny Gowans.

Village Makers — has a 51-home scheme at Great Oakley in Essex, where every property will have triple glazing plus solar panels and insulation that is so effective that little 'switch on' heating will be required. The stuff of science fiction? Not any more.

A UN report warns that the first effects of global warming on property may be felt in just 12 years so any action we take now could pay dividends quicker than we imagine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-6708573/Climate-proof-home-youre-ready-Britains-wild-weather.html

 

 

It must be obvious to anybody with half a braincell that our summers are not going to 5.4C hotter by 2070, nor that winters will be 4.2 warmer.

 

Nor are winters getting any wetter, or summers drier:

 

 

 

My dad had a water but in our house in the 1960s, but it was not because of global warming. We also had curtains!

What saving water, sealing drafts and insulating lofts has to do with climate change, heaven knows.

Instead of repeating UN warnings that the first effects of global warming on property may be felt in just 12 years, why does not the Mail give its readers the real facts for a change, and help expose the lies?

As for Michael Gove, shouldn't he be more worried about statements like this, than fake UN pronouncements?

At the same time, there's an energy crisis brewing. Back in 2016, the Institute of Mechanical Engineers forecast that as soon as 2025, the demand for electricity could outstrip its supply by as much as 40 per cent chiefly because of the country's growing population.

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Constraint Payments Rise To £124 Million

By Paul Homewood

 

 

https://www.ref.org.uk/constraints/indexbymth.php?order=mth&dir=desc&start=

 

Constraint payments to wind farms last year cost £124 millions last year, at an average of £72.29/MWh

These are paid when there is too much wind power for the grid to handle, and the cost is added to electricity bills.

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Land Of The Warming Sun: Japan Has Seen Solar Radiation Rise 10% Over Past 60 Years!

By Pierre Gosselin
and Kirye

Today any warming found anywhere almost always gets blamed on heat supposedly getting trapped by rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Moreover, activist scientists insist we ignore all other powerful factors such as solar and oceanic cycles.

In fact these activists have become so extreme that they insist that record cold today is caused by warming.

But as people learned already in the first grade, the earth's surface warms when the sun shines on it, and tends to cool when clouds obstruct the sun.

Solar radiation at the surface has risen over the past decades

In Japan, the Japanese Meteorology Agency (JMA) has 8 stations that measure solar radiation reaching the surface, and many other for recording temperature.

Data from the 8 stations recording solar radiation are plotted since 1999 (i.e. 20 years) as follows:

Data source: JMA

The black curve with the dashed linear trend line in the middle of the pack is the mean of all 8 stations. As we can see, these 8 stations have seen a clear upward trend since 1999.

Next follows the annual mean temperature chart for the same 8 stations:

Data Source: JMA.

As the chart above shows, the annual mean temperature for the 8 stations has risen modestly over the past 20 years – in line with solar radiation.

The solar radiation data in fact go back to 1961, and we've plotted that data as follows, along with the mean annual temperature for the same 8 stations:

Data from JMA

Approx. 10% rise

Since 1961, the linear trend for solar radiation has risen from about 12 MJ/m2 to about 13.4 MJ/m2, which is some 10%. Meanwhile the mean annual temperature has gone from about 14.2°C to 16°C for the 8 stations.

With all the extra solar energy, and in combination with urban development, it should not be a surprise that we've seen a warming.

CO2 hardly the driver

If we had seen the same temperature rise without an increase in solar radiation and urban development, and ignoring oceanic factors, then we might assume a possible "greenhouse" effect. But the charts make it clear that Japan's warming had very little to do with CO2.

So why would solar radiation be increasing? Obviously less cloud cover, which have nothing to do with CO2, but rather with natural solar and oceanic cycles. And no, CO2 does not drive either one.

Oceans cycles dominate over other regions

In the far north, for example, the sun is much weaker and so probably has a lesser role. So other factors such as natural ocean cycles likely have major impacts on mean annual temperature trends and ice melt. Warm oceanic phases release more moisture into the atmosphere which in turn has profound a warming effect in polar regions, for example at polar outpost Spitzbergen.

Ole Humlum, Danish professor emeritus of physical geography at the University of Oslo, believes that the future forecasts in the recently presented IPCC climate report are "not well founded", and presents a chart that shows that the AMO is clearly a huge driver:

The graph shows temperature fluctuations back to the end of the 19th century. Chart: Skjermdump.

Obviously in most regions globally, other factors are very much behind the warming of the past 150 years, and not CO2.

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Search For Shackleton’s Ship Abandoned As Sea Ice Moves In

By Paul Homewood

 

From the BBC:

 

The attempt this week to find Sir Ernest Shackleton's missing ship, the Endurance, has ended – without success.

A UK-led expedition to the Weddell Sea sent a sub to the ocean floor to look for the sunken polar yacht, but this robot was itself lost in the process.

The team has now withdrawn from the area because of deteriorating weather and sea-ice conditions.

Shackleton and his crew were forced to give up the Endurance in 1915 when frozen floes crushed its hull.

Their escape across the Antarctic sea-ice on foot and in lifeboats is an astonishing story of fortitude and survival.

The idea of finding the remains of the Endurance has captivated maritime historians and archaeologists for decades.

"As a team we are clearly disappointed not to have been successful in our mission to find Endurance," said Mensun Bound, the director of exploration for the Weddell Sea Expedition 2019 group.

"Like Shackleton before us, who described the graveyard of Endurance as 'the worst portion of the worst sea in the world', our well laid plans were overcome by the rapidly moving ice, and what Shackleton called 'the evil conditions of The Weddell Sea'."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47227657

 

 

Although the BBC story is a bit vague, the expedition website makes absolutely clear that the ship got out because of the real risk of being trapped in sea ice:

 

https://twitter.com/WeddellSeaExped/status/1095626803971006465

 

 

Indeed, the ship was already surrounded by sea ice before leaving:

 

https://twitter.com/WeddellSeaExped

 

 

 

 

 

 

Given that the Antarctic is now at the end of summer, it shows that there is just as much sea ice around in that part of the world as there was in Shackleton's time a century ago.

 

This should not come as a surprise, as Scott and Shackleton's log books gave exactly the same message, as did my analysis of Shackleton's voyage.

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Summary Against Modern Thought: God Is The Grease Of All Movement

Previous post.

These past few chapters, including this one in particular, are the start of all science.

THAT GOD IS THE CAUSE OF OPERATION FOR ALL THINGS THAT OPERATE

1 It is evident, next, that God is the cause enabling all operating agents to operate. In fact, every operating agent is a cause of being in some way, either of substantial or of accidental being. Now, nothing is a cause of being unless by virtue of its acting through the power of God, as we showed. Therefore, every operating agent acts through God's power.

2 Again, every operation that results from a certain power is attributed causally to the thing which has given the power. For instance, the natural motion of heavy and light things results from their form, depending on whether they are heavy or light, and so the cause of their motion is said to be the generating agent that has given them the form. Now, every power in any agent is from God, as from a first principle of all perfection. Therefore, since every operation results from a power, the cause of every operation must be God.

Notes The cause of every operation at its base, at its first movement or change, he means.

3 Besides, it is obvious that every action which cannot continue after the influence of a certain agent has ceased results from that agent. For instance, the manifestation of colors could not continue if the sun's action of illuminating the air were to cease, so there is no doubt that the sun is the cause of the manifestation of colors.

And the same thing appears in connection with violent motion, for it stops with the cessation of violence on the part of the impelling agent. But just as God has not only given being to things when they first began to exist, and also causes being in them as long as they exist, conserving things in being, as we have shown, so also has He not merely granted operative powers to them when they were originally created, but He always causes these powers in things. Hence, if this divine influence were to cease, every operation would cease. Therefore, every operation of a thing is traced back to Him as to its cause.

Notes This doesn't account for inertia, obviously, but you get the idea.

4 Moreover, whatever agent applies active power to the doing of something, it is said to be the cause of that action. Thus, an artisan who applies the power of a natural thing to some action is said to be the cause of the action; for instance, a cook of the cooking which is done by means of fire. But every application of power to operation is originally and primarily made by God. For operative powers are applied to their proper operations by some movement of body or of soul.

Now, the first principle of both types of movement is God. Indeed, He is the first mover and is altogether incapable of being moved, as we shown above. Similarly, also, every movement of a will whereby Powers are applied to operation is reduced to God, as a first object of appetite and a first agent of willing. Therefore; every operation should be attributed to God, as to a first and principal agent.

5 Furthermore, in all agent causes arranged in an orderly way the subsequent causes must act through the power of the first cause. For instance, in the natural order of things, lower bodies act through the power of the celestial bodies; and, again, in the order of voluntary things, all lower artisans work in accord with the direction of the top craftsman.

Now, in the order of agent causes, God the first cause, as we showed in Book One [64]. And so, all lower agent causes act through His power. But the cause of an action is the one by whose power the action is done rather than the one who acts: the principal agent, for instance, rather than the instrument. Therefore, God is more especially the cause of every action than are the secondary agent causes.

Notes This argument may strike moderns as "unfair", especially in its first part. Which shows how far we have fallen.

6 Again, every agent is ordered through his operation to an ultimate end, for either the operation itself is the end, or the thing that is made, that is, the product of the operation. Now, to order things to their end is the prerogative of God Himself, as we showed above. So, we have to say that every agent acts by the divine power. Therefore, He is the One Who is the cause of action for all things.

7 Hence it is said: "Lord, Thou hast wrought all our works in us" (Is. 26:12); and: "Without Me, you can do nothing" (John 15:5); and: "It is God Who works in us both to will and to accomplish according to His good will" (Phil. 2: 13). And for this reason, the products of nature are often attributed, in Scripture, to divine working, because it is He Who works in every agent operating naturally or voluntarily, as the text has it: "Have you not milked me as milk, and curdled me like cheese? You have clothed me with skin; You have put me together with bones and sinews" (Job 10:10-11); and in the Psalm (17:14): "The Lord thundered from heaven, and the Highest gave His voice: hail and coals of fire."

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UK gas ‘must completely decarbonize’ to hit climate goals

As if current UK energy policy wasn't already full of subsidies, more are now demanded to play around with the gas supply, in pursuit of deluded climate policies.

Total decarbonisation of UK gas is vital in the next three decades if the country is to meet its emissions reduction targets.

That's the conclusion of a report published today by independent, liberal conservative think-tank Bright Blue, reports PEI.

The study assesses how to decarbonize gas in the UK by increasing the supply of low carbon gases and by reducing demand for gas in the heat sector.

It also calls for new government investment and incentives for decarbonization to be an urgent priority for regulator Ofgem in its next price control framework for gas from April 2021.

Wilf Lytton, Bright Blue senior researcher and co-author of the report, said: "UK gas must be completely decarbonised during the coming three decades if this country is to meet its current and likely future legal emissions reduction target.

"But existing gas regulations that were designed decades ago, and a lack of investment and incentives, are hampering deeper decarbonization. Now, with time running out, the government and Ofgem should approach the task of decarbonizing gas with the same fervour as it has applied to delivering low carbon and affordable electricity.

"It is an urgent priority to ensure that Ofgem's next price control framework from April 2021 includes stronger incentives and greater investment to support deeper decarbonization.

In particular, Lytton said that Ofgem should introduce a new low-carbon gas obligation. "This will enable the UK to decarbonize the gas network at the lowest possible cost, without distorting the market and removing the need to subsidise alternatives to natural gas."

Bright Blue wants to see incentives and requirements for gas suppliers to deliver a steadily-increasing proportion of low carbon gases into the energy mix – including biomethane, bioSNG and hydrogen.

It says the proportion of low carbon gas injected into the gas network, and the trajectory for this over time, should be consistent with meeting the UK's current and likely greenhouse gas emissions reduction target.

Compliance with, and implementation of, this new 'low carbon gas obligation' would be overseen by Ofgem.

Continued here.

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Machine learning ‘causing science crisis’

Science under stress?[image credit: thespiritscience.net]

Problems can arise 'because experiments are not designed well enough to ensure that the scientists don't fool themselves and see what they want to see in the results.' For example, it seems 'up to 85% of all biomedical research carried out in the world is wasted effort'.

Machine-learning techniques used by thousands of scientists to analyse data are producing results that are misleading and often completely wrong, reports BBC News.

Dr Genevera Allen from Rice University in Houston said that the increased use of such systems was contributing to a "crisis in science".

She warned scientists that if they didn't improve their techniques they would be wasting both time and money. Her research was presented at the American Association for the Advancement of Science in Washington.

A growing amount of scientific research involves using machine learning software to analyse data that has already been collected. This happens across many subject areas ranging from biomedical research to astronomy. The data sets are very large and expensive.

'Reproducibility crisis'

But, according to Dr Allen, the answers they come up with are likely to be inaccurate or wrong because the software is identifying patterns that exist only in that data set and not the real world.

"Often these studies are not found out to be inaccurate until there's another real big dataset that someone applies these techniques to and says 'oh my goodness, the results of these two studies don't overlap'," she said.

"There is general recognition of a reproducibility crisis in science right now. I would venture to argue that a huge part of that does come from the use of machine learning techniques in science."

Continued here.

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Massive East Coast solar project generates fury from neighbors

From Fox News By Alex Pappas | Fox News SPOTSYLVANIA, Va. – Michael O'Bier has lived here on a hidden piece of land nestled against thousands of acres of trees in rural Virginia for 32 years. Now, the trees are gone and the 62-year-old O'Bier says he's packing belongings into cargo trailers. That's because the…

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