Sunday, February 24, 2019

Substituting copolymeric poly(alkylenetetrasulfide) for elemental sulfur to diminish the shuttling effect of modified intermediate polysulfides for high-performance lithium-sulfur batteries

Chem. Commun., 2019, Accepted Manuscript
DOI: 10.1039/C8CC09972C, Communication
Qiang Shen, He Zhou, Faqi Yu, Min Wei, Yunlan Su, Yuchen Ma, Dujin Wang
Poly(alkylenetetrasulfide) can be synthesized to replace sulfur in a chitosan-derived porous carbon (CPC) based composite cathode of lithium-sulfur batteries. Introducing a -CH2- or -CH2CH2- unit in-between the S-S bond of...
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Disease in Childhood

Theophylline and aminophylline for prevention of acute kidney injury in neonates and children: a systematic review
Objective

To compare the efficacy and safety of theophylline or aminophylline for prevention of acute kidney injury (AKI) in neonates and children.

Design

Systematic review and meta-analysis with application of Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation system.

Data sources

PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, Google Scholar and Cochrane renal group were searched from 1970 to May 2018.

Eligibility criteria

Randomised clinical trials and quasi-randomised trials comparing the efficacy and safety of prophylactic theophylline or aminophylline for prevention of AKI in neonates and children were included. The primary outcomes were: incidence of AKI, serum creatinine levels and all-cause mortality.

Results

A total of nine trials were included in the qualitative synthesis. Six trials including 436 term neonates with birth asphyxia who received a single dose of theophylline were finally included in the meta-analysis. The pooled estimate showed 60% reduction in the incidence of AKI in neonates with severe birth asphyxia (RR: 0.40; 95% CI 0.3 to 0.54; heterogeneity: I2=0%) (moderate quality evidence), decrease in serum creatinine over days 2–5 (very low to low quality evidence) without significant difference in all-cause mortality (RR: 0.88; 95% CI 0.52 to 1.50; heterogeneity: I2=0%) (very low-quality evidence). A significant difference in the negative fluid balance, increase in GFR and decrease in urinary β2 microglobulin was seen in favour of theophylline.

Conclusion and relevance

A single dose of prophylactic theophylline helps in prevention of AKI/severe renal dysfunction in term neonates with severe birth asphyxia (moderate quality evidence) without increasing the risk of complications and without affecting all-cause mortality (very low-quality evidence).

Trial registration number

CRD 42017073600.



Pathways to inequalities in child health

From birth, children living in disadvantaged socioeconomic circumstances (SECs) suffer from worse health than their more advantaged peers. The pathways through which SECs influence children's health are complex and inter-related, but in general are driven by differences in the distribution of power and resources that determine the economic, material and psychosocial conditions in which children grow up. A better understanding of why children from more disadvantaged backgrounds have worse health and how interventions work, for whom and in what contexts, will help to reduce these unfair differences. Macro-level change is also required, including the reduction of child poverty through improved social security systems and employment opportunities, and continued investment in high-quality and accessible services (eg, childcare, key workers, children's centres and healthy school environments). Child health professionals can play a crucial role by being mindful of the social determinants of health in their daily practice, and through advocating for more equitable and child-focussed resource allocation.



Reclaiming the systems approach to paediatric safety
Introduction

Prior to the emergence of the patient safety movement as a distinct science, it was assumed that the safety of patients was an outcome of good professional acumen, and that if healthcare providers could individually perform well then their patients would remain safe at all times.

It is now 20 years since the publication of To Err is Human,1 the first major review of healthcare safety in the USA. In the UK, the publication Organisation with a Memory2 in 2000 supported the view that patient safety required a wider system approach. Both documents reframed safety and error in healthcare as an organisational or system issue rather than one of individual error, whether of omission or of commission. Over the past 20 years, there has been major progress in the understanding of patient safety and the complexity of the systems involved in providing healthcare. In a recent...



No association between abdominal pain and Dientamoeba in Dutch and Belgian children
Objective

To study the association between Dientamoebafragilis colonisation and faecal calprotectin to see whether the parasite is a harmless commensal or a gut pathogen.

Design

Cross-sectional study of previously collected stool samples.

Setting and patients

Two hundred stool samples originated from children aged 5–19 years with chronic abdominal pain and diarrhoea, who were seen in paediatric clinics in the Netherlands and Belgium and in whom somatic gastrointestinal disorders were excluded. Another 122 samples came from a healthy community-based reference population of the same age. All stool samples were analysed with real-time PCR for the detection of D. fragilis and with an ELISA for calprotectin—a biomarker of gastrointestinal inflammation.

Main outcome measures

Prevalence of D. fragilis colonisation and results of stool calprotectin testing.

Results

D. fragilis was detected in 45% (95% CI 38% to 51%) of patients and in 71% (95% CI 63% to 79%) of healthy children. Median (IQR) concentrations of calprotectin in patients and healthy children with a positive PCR result were not different from those with a negative PCR result (40 (40–55) μg/g vs 40 (40–75) μg/g, respectively).

Conclusion

Since D. fragilis colonisation is most prevalent in healthy children and is not associated with an increase in faecal calprotectin concentration, our data do not support the inference that D. fragilis is a pathogenic parasite. Routinely testing for D. fragilis in children with chronic abdominal pain should therefore be discouraged.



Epidemiology of paediatric chronic fatigue syndrome in Australia
Objective

To estimate the paediatrician-diagnosed incidence of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) in Australia, and describe demographic and clinical features, as well as approaches to diagnosis and management.

Methods

The Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit facilitates monthly national surveillance of uncommon conditions seen by paediatricians. Data from young people aged <18 years diagnosed with CFS were collected. Incidence was estimated based on new cases reported from April 2015 to April 2016.

Results

A total of 164 cases of newly diagnosed CFS in young people aged 4–17 years were identified for inclusion. The estimated national incidence for children aged 4–9 years was 0.25 per 100 000 per annum. In children aged 10–17 years, the estimated incidence of paediatrician-diagnosed cases for Victoria (17.48 per 100 000) was substantially greater than other Australian states (range 1.31–5.51 per 100 000). Most cases were female and Caucasian, most commonly presenting after an infectious illness with symptoms gradual in onset. The majority were diagnosed at least 13 months after symptom onset. Symptoms, associations, investigations and management strategies were highly variable.

Conclusions

Current findings suggest that, consistent with other countries, the Australian incidence of CFS in children aged <10 years is very low. In contrast, the national incidence of CFS in older children and adolescents (aged 10–17 years) is more unclear, with marked variability between geographical regions apparent. This may be due to variation in service accessibility and clinician understanding of CFS. Accordingly, national initiatives to improve equity of care for children with CFS may be required.



Persistence of pneumococcal antibodies after primary immunisation with a polysaccharide-protein conjugate vaccine
Introduction

Despite immunisation, antibiotics and intensive care management, infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality in children. The WHO currently recommends vaccinating infants with either a 3+0 schedule (6 weeks, 3–4 and 4–6 months of age) or 2+1 schedule (2 doses before 6 months of age, plus a booster dose at 9–15 months of age). This study investigated pneumococcal antibody responses, including persistence of antibodies, after immunisation of healthy infants with a 3+0 schedule.

Methods

We measured pneumococcal antibody concentrations to all 13 antigens included in the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) after immunisation with a 3+0 schedule in 91 infants at 7 months and in 311 infants at 13 months of age. The geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) and the proportion of infants with an antibody concentration above the standard threshold correlate of protection (seroprotection rate) were calculated at both time points.

Results

At 7 months of age, GMCs varied between 0.52 µg/mLand 11.52 µg/mL, and seroprotection rates varied between 69% and 100%. At 13 months of age, GMCs had decreased to between 0.22 µg/mLand 3.09 µg/mL, with the lowest responses against serotype 4, followed by 19A, 3, 6B and 23F. Seroprotection rates at 13 months of age were below 90% for most serotypes, with the lowest rates for serotype 4 (23%) followed by 19A (50%), 23F (61%) and 6B (64%).

Conclusion

Our study shows that at 13 months of age, many infants vaccinated with a 3+0 schedule have pneumococcal antibody concentrations below the standard threshold correlate of protection. To optimise protection against pneumococcal disease through early childhood and to improve antibody persistence and indirect protective effects, immunisation schedules with booster doses might be necessary.



Highlights from the literature
Separating craniopagus twins

Lucina doesn't normally feature surgical case reports, but this one reported in the NEJM is remarkable (Heuer G et al doi:10.1056/NEJMoa1805132). A highly-skilled team from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia successfully separated conjoined twin girls, who shared skull bones and a common sagittal sinus, but not brain tissue. They were delivered at 30 weeks, and pre-operatively required tissue expansion techniques over several months to make separation easier. Meticulous planning, which involved computerised modelling and 3-D printing, led to an 11 hours separation procedure at age 10 months. Remodelling the venous sinuses was a particular challenge. The girls have done well, with intact skulls and only mild neurocognitive deficits. Conjoined twins are rare and craniopagus even rarer, so each case has to be looked at afresh as new technologies emerge.

EMLA in infants

'Magic cream', or topical local anaesthetic EMLA (eutectic mixture of lidocaine/lignocaine and prilocaine), is frequently used for...



Air pollution and autism

It's clear that genetics plays a major role in the aetiology of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD), but the genuine increase in prevalence over recent decades suggests that environmental factors are also responsible. If ASD is considered to be a neurodevelopmental disorder, rather than a social construct, then antenatal influences during early brain development may be important. Potential prenatal causes suggested thus far are many and varied, including paracetamol (Archivist Oct 2016 doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2016–3 11 708), antidepressant drugs (Archivist March 2016 doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2016–3 10 462), ultrasound (Archivist Sept 2018 doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2018–3 15 816), season of conception (Lucina Dec 2016 doi.org/10.1136/archdischild-2016–3 12 102), and obesity, among many others.

Several studies have hinted at a link with maternal air pollution exposure, but these have been inconsistent or inconclusive. ASD definitions have been imprecise, exposure indicators not sufficiently localised, and types of pollution lumped together. Importantly, confounding factors need to be accounted for, as families with the highest psychosocial risks for autism may tend to live...



Screentime and child health

The media are obsessed with the issue of 21st century children spending too much time staring at screens: some reports have amounted to a moral panic (www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/09/26/two-hours-screentime-day-could-damage-childrens-brain-development). The release of a statement from the UK's Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health (RCPCH) was therefore welcome (rcpch.ac.uk/resources/health-impacts-screen-time-guide-clinicians-parents). It was based on a systematic 'review of reviews' which synthesised the large amount of evidence available (Stiglic N, Viner R. doi: 10. 1136/bmjopen- 2018–0 23 191). Rather than go back to the primary data, they identified 13 reviews of varying quality that had already done this. They assessed each review's conclusions qualitatively, rather than doing further meta-analyses. Screentime use included television (TV), computers, tablets and smartphones. TV-watching predominated in most reviews. Different outcome domains were considered.

With regards to obesity or adiposity, they concluded that there was a positive association with TV screentime, but they could not define a 'safe threshold' of time....



At what weight should preterm infants be transferred from incubator to open cot?
Scenario

A preterm infant born at 28 weeks' gestation is 5 weeks old, weighs 1600 g and nursed in an incubator. During the round, the medical team instructs the nurse to transfer the infant to open cot. The nurse in charge is concerned that weaning the infant from incubator to cot at this weight might affect the temperature stability, weight gain and may delay the discharge of the infant. The third-year paediatric resident offers to review the literature and report the findings to the multidisciplinary team.

Structured clinical question

In a medically stable preterm infant with a birth weight of less than 1600 g, not on any respiratory support, nursed in incubator (patient), whether transferring the infant from incubator to unheated open cot at a lower weight (<1700 g) (intervention) compared with a higher weight (>1700 g) (comparison) will affect the temperature stability, weight gain and length of hospital stay of the...







Highlights from this issue
Global child healthVitamin A

The history of the vitamin A supplementation studies from the initial excitement of the reduction in measles related mortality trials in West Africa 25 years ago has been a chequered one. The routine population supplementation from 6 months to 5 years of age is now established, but the issue over neonatal supplementation and its effect on infant mortality and morbidity has remained unresolved, trials showing different directions of effect, or no effect. The paper from the WHO Vitamin A supplementation group addresses this in a meta-analysis of the 11 published studies. Pooled analysis showed no effect of early (first 2 to 3 days) vitamin A supplementation on mortality at either 6 months (RR 0.97, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.06) or 1 year. There were subtle differences in the sub-analyses stratified by region: in South Asia (but not Africa) where Vitamin A deficiency (defined by established...



Fetal hydrops: diagnosis and prognosis

The causes and outcomes of fetal hydrops have been well described in the literature over many years. Anti-D immunoglobulin has dramatically reduced the rate (and mortality) of immune hydrops such that non-immune hydrops (NIHF) now accounts for 90% of cases.1 Hydrops is a challenging condition to counsel for due to the relative rarity (1 in 1700–3000 pregnancies) and the fact it is the preterminal manifestation of many different pathophysiological processes.2–4

The paper published in our sister journal Fetal & Neonatal by Gilby et al5 addresses two key questions that all expectant parents faced with this problem would ask: what is the cause of the hydrops and will my baby survive? Diagnosis in NIHF is of paramount importance to accurate counselling. The more refined the phenotype the more accurate information a clinician is able to provide on mortality, morbidity and treatment options.



'Death is not the answer: the challenge of measuring the impact of early warning systems

We can all remember individual children in whom a deterioration went unrecognised. Sometimes fatally. Our defences were little more than the pearls offered by senior colleagues of grave warning signs: 'beware grunting in an infant' or 'watch out for a tachycardia after the temperature has fallen'. But this advice was unstructured, and children are so different, and their comorbidities so broad, we failed some of them. Paediatric Early Warning Systems (PEWS) are serious attempts to reduce the unacceptable and dangerous variability in this recognition and response process. Scoring systems should provide age-appropriate thresholds for concern for single parameters or aggregated abnormal physiology and prompt standardised responses. The idea has such natural appeal that PEWS use was soon advocated by a number of national bodies1 2 without evidence. This may have been a mistake. Many of the scores in widespread use were not calibrated or validated....



Biological therapeutic drug monitoring: a step towards precision medicine?

Biological medications including monoclonal antibodies against tumour necrosis factor-α (TNF-α), such as infliximab and adalimumab, have revolutionised the treatment of children and young people with autoimmune conditions such as inflammatory bowel disease, juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) and childhood chronic inflammatory uveitis. Emerging evidence is increasingly supporting the use of therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) to help optimise biological efficacy, safety and cost-effectiveness.

The pharmacokinetics of biologics is complex and in contrast to traditional medications; predominantly due to their large molecular size and structural complexity, they do not undergo hepatic metabolisation and are instead broken down by intracellular lysosomal proteolytic degradation. Also, unlike traditional medications, they have immunogenic potential and the formation of antidrug antibodies (ADA) can significantly affect their pharmacokinetic profile. ADA directed against the corresponding biologic can trigger proteolytic elimination in the reticuloendothelial system (RES) leading to increased clearance of these molecules. Conversely, an immune complex that does not...



Improving the quality of care delivered to adolescents in Europe: a time to invest
Introduction

While many governments, non governmental organisations (NGOs) and United Nations (UN) agencies have focused in the past on the health of mothers, infants and young children, there is now growing evidence that the healthcare system should also address the well-being and problems of adolescents, defined by WHO as individuals aged 10–19 years. They represent 1.2 billion individuals in the global population and between 10% and 25% of the population in European countries.1 In September 2015, the UN Secretary-General announced that the 'Every Woman, Every Child' agenda would move forward to 2030 as a Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health. In 2017, WHO responded to the large number of health problems affecting adolescents by launching a state-of-the-art review of programmes and interventions targeting the health burden of adolescents around the world, the AA-HA initiative ('Accelerated Action for the Health of Adolescents'). Adolescents' morbidities such as sexually transmitted...



Early neonatal vitamin A supplementation and infant mortality: an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials
Background

Biannual vitamin A supplementation is a well-established survival tool for preschool children 6 months and older in vitamin A deficient populations but this schedule misses the opportunity to intervene on most young infant deaths. Randomised trials of neonatal vitamin A supplementation (NVAS) in the first few days of life to assess its impact on under 6-month mortality in low/middle-income countries have had varying results.

Methods

Investigators of 11 published randomised placebo-controlled NVAS trials (n=163 567 children) reanalysed their data according to an agreed plan and pooled the primary outcomes of mortality from supplementation through 6 and 12 months of age using random effects models and meta-regression. One investigator withdrew but allowed use of the data.

Findings

Overall there was no effect of NVAS on infant survival through 6 (risk ratio (RR) 0.97; 95% CI 0.89 to 1.06) or 12 months of age (RR 1.00; 95% CI 0.93 to 1.08) but results varied by study population characteristics.

NVAS significantly reduced 6-month mortality among the trials conducted in Southern Asia (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77 to 0.98), in contexts with moderate or severe vitamin A deficiency (defined as 10% or higher proportion of women with serum retinol <0.7 µmol/L or 5% or more women with night blindness) (RR 0.87; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.94), early infant mortality was 30 or more per 1000 live births (RR 0.91; 95% CI 0.85 to 0.98), 75% or more of infant mortality occurred in the first 6 months of life (RR 0.92; 95% CI 0.84 to 1.01), or where >32% mothers had no schooling (RR 0.88; 95% CI 0.80 to 0.96). NVAS did not reduce mortality in the first 6 months of life in trials conducted in Africa, in contexts characterised by a low prevalence of vitamin A deficiency, lower rates of infant mortality and where maternal education was more prevalent. There was a suggestion of increased infant mortality in trials conducted in Africa (RR 1.07; 95% CI 1.00 to 1.15).

Individual-level characteristics such as sex, birth weight, gestational age and size, age at dosing, parity, time of breast feeding initiation, maternal education and maternal vitamin A supplementation did not modify the impact of NVAS.

Conclusion

NVAS reduced infant mortality in South Asia, in contexts where the prevalence of maternal vitamin A deficiency is moderate to severe and early infant mortality is high; but it had no beneficial effect on infant survival in Africa, in contexts where the prevalence of maternal vitamin A deficiency is lower, early infant mortality is low.



Mass antibiotic distribution to reduce mortality among preschool children?

Worldwide, under-fives mortality has halved since 1990 from 93 to 41 deaths per 1000 live births in 2016. However, progress has been very uneven. Child mortality is still highest in Africa (76 per 1000 live births) (figure 1) and neonatal mortality has declined at a slower rate so is now approaching 50% of all under-fives mortality.1 Research and programmatic efforts are focussed on reducing child mortality in the highest burden areas. An intriguing and controversial idea to reduce mortality has arisen from mass antimicrobial distribution programmes for the prevention of blindness caused by trachoma.

Trachoma has a predilection for the poorest, most remote communities with low levels of hygiene. Chlamydia trachomatis is spread by direct contact with fluid from an infected person's eyes or nose, or indirect contact with these fluids via clothing or flies. It is endemic across Africa from South Sudan and Ethiopia...



Linear growth following complicated severe malnutrition: 1-year follow-up cohort of Kenyan children
Background

Stunting is the most common manifestation of childhood undernutrition worldwide. Children presenting with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) are often also severely stunted. We evaluated linear growth and its determinants after medically complicated SAM.

Methods

We performed secondary analysis of clinical trial data (NCT00934492) from HIV-uninfected Kenyan children aged 2–59 months hospitalised with SAM. Outcome was change in height/length-for-age z-score (HAZ) between enrolment and 12 months later. Exposures were demographic, clinical, anthropometric characteristics and illness episodes during follow-up.

Results

Among 1169 children with HAZ values at month 12 (66% of those in original trial), median (IQR) age 11 (7–17) months and mean (SD) HAZ –2.87 (1.6) at enrolment, there was no change in mean HAZ between enrolment and month 12: –0.006Z (95% CI –0.07 to 0.05Z). While 262 (23%) children experienced minimal HAZ change (within ±0.25 HAZ), 472 (40%) lost >0.25 and 435 (37%) gained >0.25 HAZ. After adjusting for regression to the mean, inpatient or outpatient episodes of diarrhoea and inpatient severe pneumonia during follow-up were associated with HAZ loss. Premature birth and not being cared by the biological parent were associated with HAZ gain. Increases in mid-upper arm circumference and weight-for-age were associated with HAZ gain and protected against HAZ loss. Increase in weight-for-height was not associated with HAZ gain but protected against HAZ loss. No threshold of weight gain preceding linear catch-up growth was observed.

Conclusions

Interventions to improve dietary quality and prevent illness over a longer period may provide opportunities to improve linear growth.



Child mortality: how does the USA compare?

In March 2015, an Archives editorial featured a Lancet paper describing neonatal, infant and child mortality trends, comparing UK data to other European countries and Canada, but not the USA (doi: 10.1136/archdischild-2014–3 07 678). The UK was improving more slowly than the comparator countries. Now American authors have done something similar (Khan S et al doi:10.1001/jamapediatrics.2018.3317). Using the US National Centre for Health Statistics database, and comparing to equivalent data from England/Wales (E&W) and Canada, they found that the US is actually doing much worse than the UK. They looked at annual mortality rates for all individuals up to age 24, from 1999 to 2015, throughout the US. As seen in other countries, there was a striking decline in overall mortality rates for most age groups over the 16 year period, except for young adults aged 20–24 where there was a decline until 2012 and then a slight increase. In all age...



Research priorities for childhood chronic conditions: a workshop report
Background

Chronic conditions are the leading cause of mortality, morbidity and disability in children. However, children and caregivers are rarely involved in identifying research priorities, which may limit the value of research in supporting patient-centred practice and policy.

Objective

To identify priorities of patients, caregivers and health professionals for research in childhood chronic conditions and describe the reason for their choices.

Setting

An Australian paediatric hospital and health consumer organisations.

Methods

Recruited participants (n=73) included patients aged 8 to 14 years with a chronic condition (n=3), parents/caregivers of children aged 0 to 18 years with a chronic condition (n=19), representatives from consumer organisations (n=13) and health professionals including clinicians, researches (n=38) identified and discussed research priorities. Transcripts were thematically analysed.

Results

Seventy-eight research questions were identified. Five themes underpinned participants' priorities: maintaining a sense of normality (enabling participation in school, supporting social functioning, promoting understanding and acceptance), empowering self-management and partnership in care (overcoming communication barriers, gaining knowledge and skills, motivation for treatment adherence, making informed decisions, access and understanding of complementary and alternative therapies),strengthening ability to cope (learning to have a positive outlook, preparing for home care management, transitioning to adult services), broadening focus to family (supporting sibling well-being, parental resilience and financial loss, alleviating caregiver burden), and improving quality and scope of health and social care (readdressing variability and inequities, preventing disease complications and treatment side effects, identifying risk factors, improving long-term outcomes, harnessing technology, integrating multidisciplinary services).

Conclusion

Research priorities identified by children, caregivers and health professionals emphasise a focus on life participation, psychosocial well-being, impact on family and quality of care. These priorities may be used by funding and policy organisations in establishing a paediatric research agenda.



Aussie PM Offers $2 Billion Burnt Offering to the Climate Change Movement

Scott-Morrison.jpg

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Aussie Prime Minister Scott Morrison appears to be trying to play both sides, promoting coal plants and emissions reduction at the same time. Scott Morrison announces $2b Climate Solutions Fund to reduce Australia's emissions By political reporter Jade Macmillan Prime Minister Scott Morrison will today launch a new pre-election climate…

from Climate Change Skeptic Blogs via hj on Inoreader https://ift.tt/2E788ZE

Ringed and bearded seals, still listed as ‘threatened’, are still doing really well

This isn't news but it's good to hear it again, this time from the mouth of one of the biologists who collects the data: against all odds, the primary prey species of polar bears are doing spectacularly well.

Ringed seal Barrow AK_Brendan Kelly

According to leading seal biologist Lori Quakenbush of Alaska Department of Fish and Game, ringed and bearded seals in the Chukchi Sea are doing great (ADN, 11 February 2019, "Seals seem to be adapting to shrinking sea ice off Alaska"):

"We're seeing fat seals," said Lori Quakenbush, a wildlife biologist with the Alaska Department of Fish and Game's Arctic Marine Mammal Program. "They are reproducing earlier than they have in the past, which says they are getting enough nutrition at this point to grow quickly and become reproductive at an earlier age."

Quakenbush looking for ringed and bearded seals in Chukchi sea_11 Feb 2019 ADNRinged and bearded seals across the Arctic, including the Chukchi and Bering Seas, were listed as threatened in 2012 by the US, hot on the heals of polar bears given the same status in 2008 (USFWS 2008, 2012a, 2012b). But American biologists didn't even pretend that the seals were currently suffering, they simply assumed they would sometime in the future (Cameron et al. 2010; Kelly et al. 2010).

Now, ten years worth of low sea ice of the kind expected to drive polar bears to the brink of extinction later, and ringed and bearded seals are doing better than they did in the late 1970s and early 1980s when there was more summer ice (Adam et al. 2019; Crawford and Quakenbush 2013; Crawford et al. 2015). Quakenbush now has data that extends the period of recent research to 2016, from 2013 previously.

It's hard to imagine stronger evidence in support of retracting the ESA 'threatened' species status designation for ringed and bearded seals: clearly, ringed and bearded seals did not respond as expected when summer sea ice declined dramatically in 2007.

However, all that seems to have happened is that Quakenbush is willing to admit to a journalist that biologists can't tell the future:

"…two predictions that we made about what could be bad for walruses, just within a couple of years turned around and were sort of the opposite."

Quakenbush has been watching marine mammals throughout her long career, and she has given up predicting their future. She says that biologists know what the animals do with ice because they have studied that, but we don't know what they do without it.

Read the whole thing here.

Unfortunately, predicting the future was precisely what US biologists insisted they could do accurately in 2012, even though no other conservation organization in the world concurred with their assessemnt, including the IUCN. The IUCN Red List classified both ringed and bearded seals as species of 'Least Concern' in 2008 and in 2016 (Kovacs 2016; Lowry 2016; Kovaks and Lowry 2008; Kovacs et al. 2008).1

Bearded Seal_25 Oct 2016_9th Circ. Backs Climate Predictions_The Guardian headline

Footnote 1. The suggestion made in this article that Sea of Okhotsk ringed seals have only recently begun to give birth on the sea ice without making snow caves or 'lairs' is not true. Sea of Okhotsk ringed seals have been known to give birth in the pack ice (not on fast ice) without snow dens since at least the 1960s (Fedoseev 1975:158; Kelly et al. 2010a:10) and also in the ice of western Svalbard (Smith et al. 1991:129).

References

Adam, R., Bryan, A., Quakenbush, L., Crawford, J., and Biderman, L.2019. Bearded seal productivity in Alaska using harvest-based monitoring, 1975-2016. Poster presentation, Alaska Marine Science Symposium, 28 January-1 February.

Abstract: Declines in arctic sea ice extent, thickness, and duration are projected to negatively impact bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) by reducing their time to rest, pup, nurse, and molt on sea ice. Existing population estimates for bearded seals in Alaska cannot be used to detect trends; however, the Alaska Department of Fish and Game works with Alaska Native hunters to collect data from the subsistence harvest that are used to determine several population health indices, such as: pregnancy rate, age of maturity, and the proportion of pups in the sampled harvest. These indices were previously used to determine if declines in sea ice have affected bearded seals between 1975–1984 and 2003–2014.

During these time periods pregnancy rates varied minimally (92–99%); however, the average age of maturity decreased from 4.2 years in 1975–1984 to 2.9 years in 2003–2014. Additionally, pups were harvested in lower proportions during 1975–1984 than during 2003–2014 (26% and 48%, respectively), indicating that pups are still being produced, weaned, and are surviving to be harvested. Through 2014, we have not detected the decreases in population indices that have been predicted to occur with climate change. However, due to continued declines in sea ice, further monitoring is important; therefore, here we update our 1975–2014 results to include samples from 2015 and 2016.

Cameron, M. F., Bengtson, J. L., Boveng, J. K., Jansen, J. K., Kelly, B. P., Dahle, S. P., Logerwell, E. A., Overland, J. E., Sabine, C. L., Waring, G. T. and Wilder, J. M. 2010. Status review of the bearded (Erignatha barbatus). NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-211.
www.afsc.noaa.gov/Publications/AFSC-TM/NOAA-TM-AFSC-211.pdf

Crawford, J. and Quakenbush, L. 2013. Ringed seals and climate change: early predictions versus recent observations in Alaska. Oral presentation by Justin Crawfort, 28th Lowell Wakefield Fisheries Symposium, March 26-29. Anchorage, AK. Abstract below, find pdf here:http://seagrant.uaf.edu/conferences/2013/wakefield-arctic-ecosystems/program.php

Crawford and Quakenbush_Wakefield Abstract_2013 Ringed Seal_predictions not met
Crawford, J.A., Quakenbush, L.T. and Citta, J.J. 2015. A comparison of ringed and bearded seal diet, condition and productivity between historical (1975–1984) and recent (2003–2012) periods in the Alaskan Bering and Chukchi seas. Progress in Oceanography 136:133-150.

Fedoseev, G. A. 1975. Ecotypes of the ringed seal (Pusa hispida Schreber, 1777) and their reproductive capabilities. In Biology of the Seal, K. Ronald and A.W. Mansfield (eds.), pp. 156-160. Rapports et Proces-verbaux des Reunions, Conseil International Pour L'Exploration de la Mer 169.

Kelly, B. P., Bengtson, J. L., Boveng, P. L., Cameron, M. F., Dahle, S. P., Jansen, J. K., Logerwell, E. A., Overland, J. E., Sabine, C. L., Waring, G. T. and Wilder, J. M. 2010. Status review of the ringed seal (Phoca hispida). NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-212.
www.afsc.noaa.gov/Publications/AFSC-TM/NOAA-TM-AFSC-212.pdf

Kovacs, K.M. 2016. Erignathus barbatus. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2016: e.T8010A45225428. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/full/8010/0

Kovacs, K. and Lowry, L. (IUCN SSC Pinniped Specialist Group) 2008. Erignathus barbatus. In: IUCN 2012. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2012.2. . Downloaded on 29 December 2012. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/8010/0

Kovacs, K., Lowry, L. and Härkönen, T. (IUCN SSC Pinniped Specialist Group) 2008. Pusa hispida. In: IUCN 2012. IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Version 2012.2. . Downloaded on 29 December 2012. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/41672/0

Lowry, L. 2016. Pusa hispida. The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2016: e.T41672A45231341. http://www.iucnredlist.org/details/41672/0

Smith, T. G., Hammill, M. O. and Taugbøl, G. 1991. A review of the development, behavioural and physiological adaptations of the ringed seal, Phoca hispida, to life in the arctic winter. Arctic 44:124-131.

US Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS). 2008. Determination of threatened status for the polar bear (Ursus maritimus) throughout its range. Federal Register 73: 28212-28303.

US Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS). 2012a. Threatened status for the Arctic, Okhotsk and Baltic subspecies of the ringed seal. Federal Register 77: 76706–76738.

US Fish & Wildlife Service (USFWS). 2012b. Threatened status for the Beringia and Okhotsk distinct population segments of the Erignathus barbatus nauticus subspecies of the bearded seal. Federal Register 77: 76740–76768.



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Molten metal closo-borate solvates

Chem. Commun., 2019, Accepted Manuscript
DOI: 10.1039/C9CC00187E, Communication
Kasper T. Møller, Mark Paskevicius, Jacob Ginnerup Andreasen, Junqiao Lee, Nigel Chen-Tan, Jacob Overgaard, Seyedhosein Payandeh, Debbie S Silvester, Craig Buckley, Torben Rene R. Jensen
Solvated lithium closo-dodecaborate, Li2B12H12 with tetrahydrofuran and acetonitrile, show unexpected melting at < 150 °C. This feature has been explored to melt-infiltrate Li2B12H12 in a nanoporous SiO2 scaffold. The ionic...
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Blue quantum dot light-emitting diodes with high luminance by improving the charge transfer balance

Chem. Commun., 2019, Accepted Manuscript
DOI: 10.1039/C9CC00230H, Communication
Dongyu Li, Jinke Bai, Tingting Zhang, Chun Chang, Xiao Jin, Zhen Huang, Bing Xu, Qinghua Li
The developments of the blue quantum dot light-emitting diodes (QLEDs) lags far behind the red and green ones, which hinders the practical commercialization of the QLEDs. Balancing the charge transfer...
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Improved single-chain-magnet behavior in a biradical-based nitronyl nitroxide-Cu-Dy chain

Chem. Commun., 2019, Accepted Manuscript
DOI: 10.1039/C9CC00570F, Communication
Jing Xie, Hongdao Li, Meng Yang, Juan Sun, Licun Li, Jean-Pascal Sutter
A biradical with ferromagnetic intramolecular interaction was found to improve the SCM behavior of a nitronyl nitroxide-Cu-Dy chain, resulting in an energy barrier for magnetization reversal of 40 K.
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Nanoscopic hydrophilic/hydrophilic phase-separation well below the LCST of Polyphosphoesters

Chem. Commun., 2019, Accepted Manuscript
DOI: 10.1039/C8CC09788G, Communication
Johannes Hunold, Thomas Wolf, Frederik R Wurm, Dariush Hinderberger
We characterize the complex phase separation process of thermoresponsive, water-soluble polyphosphoesters (PPEs) with identical side-group structure but different copolymer composition. These PPEs show lower critical solution temperature (LCST) type behavior,...
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez To Green New Deal Haters: ‘I’m The Boss. How ‘Bout That?’

From The Daily Caller Speaking at a "Girls Who Code" event in New York City, self-identified democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez hit back against critics of her Green New Deal resolution. WATCH: Ocasio-Cortez declares "I'm the Boss… How 'bout that!" while claiming that no one else has tried to come up with climate change policy before…

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VA Legislature becomes 1st to vote to bar AG participation in Bloomberg climate scheme

https://ift.tt/2SZN15V A Big Win For Sanity in Government Chris Horner has scored a a big win for shutting down Michael Bloomberg's attempts to hijack democracy. Chris Horner has scored a a big win for shutting down Michael Bloomberg's attempts to hijack democracy. GAO Praises Virginia General Assembly: 1st Legislature to Strike at Bloomberg Attempt to […]

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Strong Arctic sea-ice growth this year

Guest Post by Javier February is not over, and Arctic sea-ice extent is already over half a million square kilometers higher than last year at this day. The growing season has not ended, and 2019 Arctic sea-ice extent is already higher than the previous four years and six out of the last 14 years.  …

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ALERT: Days of no federal challenge to Climate Bullsh*t Coming to an end! ‘Trump admin. planning to create ad hoc group of fed scientists to reassess & counter govt conclusions on climate change’

https://ift.tt/2tD4JwS White House committee to reassess climate science conclusions: report BY MICHAEL BURKE The Trump administration is planning to create an ad hoc group of federal scientists to reassess and counter the government's conclusions on climate change, The Washington Post reported Sunday. The National Security Council (NSC) initiative would feature scientists who challenge the seriousness […]

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‘The Trump Administration has less than two years left to launch a serious, public, scientific review of the climate scam’

https://ift.tt/2E7bko7 When Will the Trump Administration Finally Confront the CIC? Alan Carlin | February 23, 2019 I have advocated independent review of climate science by the Trump Administration over the last few years, most recently here. The best way to do this is a formal reevaluation and rejection of the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding (EF) issued […]

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Will President Trump finally confront climate alarmism?

https://ift.tt/2BOMrNA Will President Trump finally confront climate alarmism? By David Wojick|February 23rd, 2019|Regulation|1 Comment President Trump may finally do something about the rampant Obama-era climate change alarmism in his agencies. The Washington Post reports that there is a draft Executive Order creating a Presidential Committee on Climate Security. Among its sorely needed tasks is the […]

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All Eyes On The One Scientist Set To Upend The ‘Climate Change’ Narrative – ‘Dr. Will Happer is one of the most important scientists in the U.S.’

https://ift.tt/2EqNN2I Climate Science, Red in Tooth and Claw: Yapping Hyenas Attack a Lion By Norman Rogers William Happer is one of the most important scientists in the United States.  He is an emeritus professor of physics at Princeton and a long-serving adviser to the federal government.  His scientific discoveries and inventions are extensive.  Currently, he serves in the White […]

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Delingpole: The Five Best Arguments Against Climate Alarmism via Tony Heller

https://ift.tt/2GFjbx1 By James Delingpole Tony Heller, aka Steven Goddard of the Deplorable Climate Science Blog, has compiled a must-read list of the five top arguments against climate alarmism. This was in response to a challenge by Scott Adams, who is unsure what position to take on this issue and needs persuasion. On one of his Periscopes, Adams […]

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Kelly Craft Vs. Monotonic Climate Science

27d7c-89935828-global-warming.jpg?w=1000

Update February 24, 2019

Now that Kelly Craft, US Ambassador to Canada is Trump's nominee for UN Ambassador, let's return to the interview for which she will again be persecuted by climate alarmists/activists.

The Greek word for "one tone" is monotonia, which is the root for both monotone and the closely-related word monotonous, which means "dull and tedious." Monotone is a droning, unchanging tone. A continuous sound, especially someone's voice, that doesn't rise and fall in pitch, is a monotone. Nothing can put you to sleep quite as effectively as a teacher talking in a monotone.

Monotonic climate science was on full display as journalists, pundits and tweeters freaked out over a comment by the new US ambassador to Canada.  Her offense:  saying there were two sides on the climate issue and she respects them both.

The story from CBC:  The new U.S. ambassador to Canada said Monday that she believes "both sides" of climate change science.

In an interview with Canada's CBC News, Kelly Knight Craft said that she believes there is "accurate" science on "both sides" but did not specify what sides she was referring to.

"I believe there are sciences on both sides that are accurate," Craft said. "Both sides have their own results from their studies, and I appreciate and respect both sides of the science."

President Trump appointed Craft, a prominent GOP fundraiser, to the ambassadorship earlier this year.

Craft told CBC that even though Trump has pledged to pull the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, she thinks the U.S. can "absolutely" fight climate climate change.

"We all have the same goal, and that is to better our environment and to maintain the environment," she said. "I feel like our administration has been on top of this regardless of whether or not they'd be pulling out."

It is true Ambassador Craft had the look of a deer in the headlights.  She is from Kentucky where one doesn't encounter sanctimonious warmists as frequently as in Ottawa, and especially not ones determined to get a "gotcha" quote from her.

All the comments at alarmist websites dissed her for thinking the issue could have two differing points of view. Going further, they repeatedly claim "science" does not have two sides, not now, not ever. And, of course, she offends them by saying she respects people on both sides of the matter. As an Ambassador, she sought common ground by pointedly not mentioning the specifics of how the US is actually reducing its CO2 emissions while Canada has not.

The damage here goes beyond climate science to the degradation of all scientific disciplines.  These smug journalists and their audiences know that on all kinds of issues reasonable people can disagree.  But somehow they have been brainwashed with the notion that science is a catechism with only one right answer.  That idea is false and a threat to modern civilization.

They hear only about Jim Hansen, Al Gore, Mike Mann and their ilk, and think their pronouncements are universally and eternally true.  Many, many scientists see things differently. Hard as it is to go from simplicity to complexity, let us enlighten these folks to some of the other sides of climate science .  First, meet Richard Muller who shares some concerns and not others.  Below in italics is his answer to a question raised on Quora:   What are some widely cited studies in the news that are false?

Answer by Richard Muller, Professor of Physics at UC Berkeley.

That 97% of all climate scientists accept that climate change is real, large, and a threat to the future of humanity. That 97% basically concur with the vast majority of claims made by Vice President Al Gore in his Nobel Peace Prize winning film, An Inconvenient Truth.

The question asked in typical surveys is neither of those. It is this: "Do you believe that humans are affecting climate?" My answer would be yes. Humans are responsible for about a 1 degree Celsius rise in the average temperature in the last 100 years. So I would be included as one of the 97% who believe.

Yet the observed changes that are scientifically established, in my vast survey of the science, are confined to temperature rise and the resulting small (4-inch) rise in sea level. (The huge "sea level rise" seen in Florida is actually subsidence of the land mass, and is not related to global warming.) There is no significant change in the rate of storms, or of violent storms, including hurricanes and volcanoes. The temperature variability is not increasing. There is no scientifically significant increase in floods or droughts. Even the widely reported warming of Alaska ("the canary in the mine") doesn't match the pattern of carbon dioxide increase–it may have an explanation in terms of changes in the northern Pacific and Atlantic currents. Moreover, the standard climate models have done a very poor job of predicting the temperature rise in Antarctica, so we must be cautious about the danger of confirmation bias.

My friend Will Happer believes that humans do affect the climate, particularly in cities where concrete and energy use cause what is called the "urban heat island effect." So he would be included in the 97% who believe that humans affect climate, even though he is usually included among the more intense skeptics of the IPCC. He also feels that humans cause a small amount of global warming (he isn't convinced it is as large as 1 degree), but he does not think it is heading towards a disaster; he has concluded that the increase in carbon dioxide is good for food production, and has helped mitigate global hunger. Yet he would be included in the 97%.

The problem is not with the survey, which asked a very general question. The problem is that many writers (and scientists!) look at that number and mischaracterize it. The 97% number is typically interpreted to mean that 97% accept the conclusions presented in An Inconvenient Truth by former Vice President Al Gore. That's certainly not true; even many scientists who are deeply concerned by the small global warming (such as me) reject over 70% of the claims made by Mr. Gore in that movie (as did a judge in the UK; see the following link: Gore climate film's nine 'errors').

The pollsters aren't to blame. Well, some of them are; they too can do a good poll and then misrepresent what it means. The real problem is that many people who fear global warming (include me) feel that it is necessary to exaggerate the meaning of the polls in order to get action from the public (don't include me).

There is another way to misrepresent the results of the polls. Yes, 97% of those polled believe that there is human caused climate change. How did they reach that decision? Was it based on a careful reading of the IPCC report? Was it based on their knowledge of the potential systematic uncertainties inherent in the data? Or was it based on their fear that opponents to action are anti-science, so we scientists have to get together and support each other. There is a real danger in people with Ph.D.s joining a consensus that they haven't vetted professionally.

I like to ask scientists who "believe" in global warming what they think of the data. Do they believe hurricanes are increasing? Almost never do I get the answer "Yes, I looked at that, and they are." Of course they don't say that, because if they did I would show them the actual data! Do they say, "I've looked at the temperature record, and I agree that the variability is going up"? No. Sometimes they will say, "There was a paper by Jim Hansen that showed the variability was increasing." To which I reply, "I've written to Jim Hansen about that paper, and he agrees with me that it shows no such thing. He even expressed surprise that his paper has been so misinterpreted."

A really good question would be: "Have you studied climate change enough that you would put your scientific credentials on the line that most of what is said in An Inconvenient Truth is based on accurate scientific results? My guess is that a large majority of the climate scientists would answer no to that question, and the true percentage of scientists who support the statement I made in the opening paragraph of this comment, that true percentage would be under 30%. That is an unscientific guestimate, based on my experience in asking many scientists about the claims of Al Gore.

Then esteemed climate scientist Richard Lindzen, in a short video introduces you to more sides to the climate change issue:

Summary

Science in general, and climate science in particular is not monotonic, but polyphonic.  There are and have always been differing voices and tones in the search for objective truth.  Only the illiterate think otherwise.
Sowell-Factual.jpg?ssl=1



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Expanding Arctic Ice…Greenland’s Bare Ice Area Rises 36% Since 2019

Just a short post today, following up on yesterday's polar ice update, where the data show nothing unusual happening at the earth's poles.

The globe's surface has warmed over the past 140 years by almost 1°C, but that too is well within the natural range of variability over the Holocene.

Schneefan (Snowfan) here posted a chart on the Greenland ice cover, noting that "bare ice area of Greenland has been rising since measurements began in the year 2000":

Source: DMI

The linear trend shows that bare ice area over Greenland has risen from 110,000 square kilometers in 2000 to close to 150,000 square kilometers in 2019. That's a rise of 36%!



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Climate Science, Red in Tooth and Claw: Yapping Hyenas Attack a Lion

By Norman Rogers, American Thinker

William Happer is one of the most important scientists in the United States.  He is an emeritus professor of physics at Princeton and a long-serving adviser to the federal government.  His scientific discoveries and inventions are extensive.  Currently, he serves in the White House as a senior adviser to the National Security Council.

The Trump administration is thinking of forming a "Presidential Committee on Climate Security." The press has been told to direct questions to Dr. Happer.  That is enough to bring out the climate hyenas. They can't stand the thought that Trump might have some solid scientific advice concerning climate change.  The hyenas are running an all-out attack against Dr. Happer.

Following Alinsky's Rules for Radicals, the camp followers of the global warming industry try to create polarization.  In a Time magazine article, a former admiral says Happer is a fringe figure.  A climate scientist at Georgia Tech says Happer has "false, unscientific notions." We are reassured that the global warming scare is absolutely solid science, as everyone except climate deniers knows.

What everyone may not know is that climate science is an industry, and the product is the global warming scare.  If the global warming scare is discredited, the huge industry will collapse.  Climate scientists used to be unimportant academics in an unimportant academic field.  The global warming scare made them into celebrities jetting around the world.  They won't give up the glory without a fight.

Climate computer models, the basis of the doomsday predictions, disagree with each other and disagree with the climate of the Earth.  But according to the climate science mafia, anyone who brings up such embarrassing information is a tool of the fossil fuel industry.  As far as the climate mafia is concerned, the business plan of the fossil fuel industry is to wreck the Earth and wreck the global warming industry.  The reality is that the fossil fuel industry is wimpy and not inclined to take on the global warmers.

Climate science has gone off the rails.  President Eisenhower nailed the problem in his 1961 farewell address.  He expressed the fear that because science had become heavily dependent on federal financial support, scientists would color the science in order to increase the flow of federal money.  Nothing works better for increasing the flow of federal scientific money than predicting a future disaster.  If scientists predict a disaster, we have to give them more money to research methods of preventing the disaster.

Since Eisenhower's address, we have been treated to a parade of scientific doomsday predictions, none of which measured up to the hype.  There was global cooling that preceded global warming.  There were acid rain, DDT, the ozone layer, overpopulation, and many others.  It is not only scientists who use a parade of disaster predictions.  Environmental organizations need doomsday predictions, too, in order to keep their members interested.  The press has a bias for sensationalism, so it too promotes the latest doomsday predictions.

Many professions are supposed to adhere to high ethical standards. For example, lawyers are supposed to put the interests of their clients above their own interests.  Doctors are supposed to put their patients' welfare above their own pecuniary interests.  Journalists are supposed to be objective and not color their work with their own political preferences.  We know that not every professional adheres strictly to his ethical code.  Scientists are not different.  They are supposed to search for scientific truth and to exercise objectivity in their work.  They are not supposed to hype weak theories in order to improve their professional standing.  But these things happen.

Most scientists are not in a position to contradict global warming hype.  Science is a profession characterized by ideological schools and groupthink.  Groupthink is worst in sciences where the rules are not clear and the data are confusing - for example, climate science.  Young scientists depend on older, more senior scientists for recognition and promotion.  They are in no position to contradict groupthink.  They have families to feed.  The senior scientists may be running large scientific enterprises financed by federal money.  To express doubts about the mission or the truth of the groupthink would be to threaten their money and the jobs of people in their organization.

The consequence of the groupthink atmosphere is that dissenters come from the ranks of scientists removed from the pressure to conform - for example, retired scientists, amateur scientists, and scientists so accomplished as to be immune to threats and group pressure.  There are thousands of such scientists who are skeptical of the global warming hype.  When they speak out, they are attacked, and the attacks are usually vicious.  The members of the global warming establishment will almost never debate skeptics.  When this was done years ago, the skeptics were too credible.

Science is great, and our modern world is a product of science.  But scientists are humans, not gods.  They play the same games that other beneficiaries of federal money play.  We have been fooled over and over again by fake predictions of disasters or one sort or another.  The fake predictions are never completely fake.  There is usually some real science buried in all the hype.  For example, it is reasonable to expect that some global warming might be caused by adding CO2 to the atmosphere.  What is probably a modest effect has been twisted and exaggerated into a doomsday scenario that demands that we save the planet.  The good effects of CO2 that are well known and that are solid science are ignored.  Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere makes plants grow better with less water.  Greenhouse-operators use CO2-generators in their greenhouses.  CO2 is greening deserts.  How often to you hear about these benefits of CO2?

DDT was banned because it supposedly thinned birds' eggs and perhaps because some people screamed cancer.  But DDT is highly effective against mosquitos that cause malaria.  The World Health Organization finally lifted the ban on DDT because thousands of children were dying in Africa.  DDT will never be rehabilitated in the U.S. because the propaganda has been permanently imprinted in the minds of the populace.

Science has created institutions that serve to enhance the image of science.  For example, peer review often degenerates into pal review.  Scientific journals are often filled with papers of dubious value generated by a system that values quantity over quality.  The National Academy of Science pretends to give objective advice to the government, but often the advice is to appropriate more money for science.

Typically, when science invents a new doomsday theory, the environmental organizations embellish it with unscientific flourishes.  The scientist inventors of the theory don't correct the environmental organizations because that would slow the momentum toward a new surge of federal money.  That should be an ethical violation.  Scientists should have a duty to set the record straight in such circumstances.

There is no simple solution to the parade of doomsday theories.  It would help if the government understood better that throwing more money at an alleged problem may exaggerate rather than alleviate the problem.  Massive spending may not solve difficult scientific problems, but massive spending always creates bureaucracies that exist to sustain the spending.

Norman Rogers is the author of the book Dumb Energy: A Critique of Wind and Solar Energy.



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Alan Carlin: When will the Trump Administration finally confront the CIC?

Photosynthesis: nature requires carbon dioxide


The absurdity of a ruling that vital trace gas carbon dioxide is a 'pollutant' has been allowed to stand for far too long. What would nature say? (see graphic)

I have advocated independent review of climate science by the Trump Administration over the last few years, most recently here, writes Alan Carlin.

The best way to do this is a formal reevaluation and rejection of the Greenhouse Gas Endangerment Finding (EF) issued by the Obama US Environmental Protection Agency in 2009. This might lead to real action–rejection of the EF.

The Trump Administration has scaled back EPA's climate-related regulations, but been careful not to formally reevaluate EF or attack climate alarmist "science."

Until the EF is formally reevaluated and rejected, EPA is in legal jeopardy of being forced to implement various attempts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions despite its dubious benefits.

There have been various attempts to carry out reviews that might question climate alarmism, but no serious review has been undertaken to date by the Trump Administration.

This week a new effort [Talkshop link] has been rumored to be undertaken on a portion of climate alarmist science, namely the impact of alleged climate change on national security. This would be in the form of a review by a Presidential panel or committee.

Only one definite member of the panel has been mentioned, Dr. William Happer, who was rumored to be the chairman. The CIC immediately howled bloody murder against Dr. Happer, despite his long and distinguished service in the academic and governmental worlds.

Continued here.



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Puffins Thriving–Despite Climate Change!

By Paul Homewood

 

 

Remember headlines like these?

 image_thumb173

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/44815636

image_thumb72

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/05/23/uk-puffins-may-go-way-dodo-fears-extinction-50-years/

  

It turned out to be just more fake news, as the latest Farne Islands count reveals:

 

image

Puffin numbers on the remote Farne Islands are "stable", despite early results of a  survey which prompted fears they could be struggling.

The National Trust said rangers conducting the survey last May had thought initial low numbers on the outlying islands of the 28-island archipelago were due to the harsh winter and a decline in readily available food.

There were fears the initial results in the five-yearly study would be replicated across the islands, which are situated off the coast of Northumberland, spelling bad news for the threatened seabird.

But it now seems the lower numbers on the outer islands are the result of the thriving grey seal population, causing puffin burrows to be inadvertently crushed and leading more birds to nest on the inner isles, the Trust said.

Final results from the 2018 survey, which involved checking a proportion of burrows on eight of the islands, reveal there are around 44,000 pairs, up 9% on the last count conducted in 2013.

Numbers of the seabird, which is listed as globally vulnerable to extinction amid declining populations, have risen on the islands in the past 25 years, the National Trust said.

Some 37,710 pairs were recorded in 1993 and the population peaked at 55,674 pairs in 2003, but that was followed by a sudden crash in 2008 when numbers fell by a third before slowly recovering.

National Trust ranger, Thomas Hendry said: "When we started the count in the outer group of islands we were very anxious that numbers were down, especially as we know puffins are struggling for survival across the globe.

"After further investigations on the inner group of islands, numbers seemed to be much more positive.

"This could be due to the islands being more sheltered, providing an ideal habitat for the puffins to successfully breed and raise their young.

"Another factor for the lower bird numbers on the outer islands could be the success of our grey seal population. "

The seal population of the Farnes has increased (Owen Humphreys/PA)

The seal population of the Farnes has increased (Owen Humphreys/PA)

He said the seal pup numbers had grown from 1,704 to 2,602 in the last five years.

"A rather unfortunate consequence of this growth is the seals are competing with puffins for areas to raise their young.

"Although the two species are in residence and breed at different times of year, the weight of the seals could be crushing the puffin burrows and eroding surrounding vegetation."

Dr Chris Redfern, emeritus professor at Newcastle University, who helped to verify said the count suggests "population of puffins on the Farne Islands overall is at least stable at the moment".

"However, there are indications of some re-distribution of puffins between different islands so we need to be vigilant to ensure that all islands remain in tip-top condition for this seabird to breed successfully in the future."

But he said the results suggested the seas off the Northumberland coast could still support good numbers of breeding seabirds and indicate the colonies were not showing the declines seen in populations further north.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/pa/article-6731859/Puffin-numbers-Farne-Islands-stable-despite-early-survey-concerns.html



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Delingpole: The Five Best Arguments Against Climate Alarmism

By James Delingpole

Tony Heller, aka Steven Goddard of the Deplorable Climate Science Blog, has compiled a must-read list of the five top arguments against climate alarmism. This was in response to a challenge by Scott Adams, who is unsure what position to take on this issue and needs persuasion.

On one of his Periscopes, Adams - creator of the Dilbert cartoons, now with a flourishing side-career as an internet seeker-after-truth - said that if Heller could produce five unassailable arguments then he would become a climate sceptic; but that if Heller failed, then he (Adams) would "come down hard on the opinion that there's something big to worry about."

So how has Heller fared?

I think he has done a great job. The five arguments, which I'll rephrase slightly, are as follows:

Climate alarmism is just a modern version of man's primal superstitions about cataclysmic natural events. But these fears are baseless for there is no legitimate evidence to show that "extreme weather is increasing or sea level rise is accelerating."

Climate alarmism is a form of Groupthink - or, as Heller puts it, the Emperor's New Clothes. This Groupthink requires ignoring the evidence and instead deferring to the opinions of a very small body of parti pris "experts".

If the case for the "global warming" were as strong as these experts say, the debate would be over by now. Instead, all of their "apocalyptic predictions" have failed miserably. What reason do we have to believe them after all this time?

Climate alarmism is entirely dependent on graphs and computer models which rely on cherry-picked or corrupt data. Few if any of these models have come close to forecasting real world outcomes.

The proposed solutions to "climate change" are "unworkable, dangerous and useless."

In my view the last argument is the clincher. It's the one that ought to unite all of us, skeptics and true believers alike. After all, even those who fully subscribe to the theory that climate change is dangerous, unprecedented and man-made ought surely to agree that there's no point chucking money at the problem if it's going to do more harm than good.

Yet this is exactly what is happening.

Taxpayer-subsidised wind and solar are doing huge damage to the environment, to wildlife, and to the economy.

Biofuels are destroying rainforest and agricultural land, driving up food prices, needlessly hurting nature.

Rent-seekers in crony capitalist Potemkin industries like renewables are being subsidized to produce inefficient, intermittent, unnecessarily costly power, misallocating scarce resources and driving the indigent deeper into fuel poverty.

Science in universities and schools is being corrupted by a Climate Industrial Complex which rewards science, however flawed, which promotes the alarmist narrative and which punishes science that defies the so-called "Consensus".

Vast sums of public money - in excess of $1.5 trillion per year - are being squandered on the chimaera of "climate change." Yet despite all this spending, using the alarmists' own calculations, it will offset "global warming" by the end of the century by 0.048C (0.086F).

That's 1/20th of one degree Celsius.

The activists, shyster politicians, rent-seekers, dodgy scientists, media second-raters and other useful idiots who are pushing for more climate action are demanding the impossible. If ever they achieved their ambitions, western industrial civilization would collapse.

As Heller puts it:

The reason winter is cold, is because of a lack of solar energy.  The sun is low in the sky, days are short, and it is cloudy much of the time.  Yet climate alarmists want people to be dependent on solar energy for their survival.  They imagine that there is some storage technology which can store huge amounts of energy for long periods of time when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing. But as Bill Gates pointed out, that technology doesn't exist.

I have degrees in science and engineering, and have worked for most of the last 45 years as both. The job of scientists is to come up with ideas. By contrast, the primary job of engineers is to make things that work. If a bridge or a microprocessor, doesn't work - very bad things will happen. Bad engineering is fatal to humans, companies and civilizations.

This is what I find so puzzling about self-proclaimed "environmental" campaigners. They keep telling us that they want to save the planet, that they are concerned about "future generations", that the people who "deny" climate change are selfish, greedy, and anti-science.

Yet everything these "environmental" campaigners do achieves an effect diametrically opposite to their alleged good intentions.

These greenies are hurting the poor, they're damaging the planet, they're hampering the economic growth that historically has enabled us to overcome or limit such environmental problems as pollution, they're killing birds and bats and orangutans. Yet still, somehow, they keep telling us that they have the moral high ground.

Think about this next time you read some scare story about the coming climate apocalypse or about kids bunking off school in order to protest that more needs to be done: it's not science you're seeing here but hard left politics.

That's the main reason, Scott Adams, why you shouldn't allow yourself to be troubled by the great climate scare: because even if the greenies are right about the science - which they're not, by the way - they are completely wrong about the solutions.

Their claimed intentions may sound good; the outcomes they inflict on us are evil.

By James Delingpole

Tony Heller, aka Steven Goddard of the Deplorable Climate Science Blog, has compiled a must-read list of the five top arguments against climate alarmism. This was in response to a challenge by Scott Adams, who is unsure what position to take on this issue and needs persuasion.

On one of his Periscopes, Adams - creator of the Dilbert cartoons, now with a flourishing side-career as an internet seeker-after-truth - said that if Heller could produce five unassailable arguments then he would become a climate sceptic; but that if Heller failed, then he (Adams) would "come down hard on the opinion that there's something big to worry about."

So how has Heller fared?

I think he has done a great job. The five arguments, which I'll rephrase slightly, are as follows:

Climate alarmism is just a modern version of man's primal superstitions about cataclysmic natural events. But these fears are baseless for there is no legitimate evidence to show that "extreme weather is increasing or sea level rise is accelerating."

Climate alarmism is a form of Groupthink - or, as Heller puts it, the Emperor's New Clothes. This Groupthink requires ignoring the evidence and instead deferring to the opinions of a very small body of parti pris "experts".

If the case for the "global warming" were as strong as these experts say, the debate would be over by now. Instead, all of their "apocalyptic predictions" have failed miserably. What reason do we have to believe them after all this time?

Climate alarmism is entirely dependent on graphs and computer models which rely on cherry-picked or corrupt data. Few if any of these models have come close to forecasting real world outcomes.

The proposed solutions to "climate change" are "unworkable, dangerous and useless."

In my view the last argument is the clincher. It's the one that ought to unite all of us, skeptics and true believers alike. After all, even those who fully subscribe to the theory that climate change is dangerous, unprecedented and man-made ought surely to agree that there's no point chucking money at the problem if it's going to do more harm than good.

Yet this is exactly what is happening.

Taxpayer-subsidised wind and solar are doing huge damage to the environment, to wildlife, and to the economy.

Biofuels are destroying rainforest and agricultural land, driving up food prices, needlessly hurting nature.

Rent-seekers in crony capitalist Potemkin industries like renewables are being subsidized to produce inefficient, intermittent, unnecessarily costly power, misallocating scarce resources and driving the indigent deeper into fuel poverty.

Science in universities and schools is being corrupted by a Climate Industrial Complex which rewards science, however flawed, which promotes the alarmist narrative and which punishes science that defies the so-called "Consensus".

Vast sums of public money - in excess of $1.5 trillion per year - are being squandered on the chimaera of "climate change." Yet despite all this spending, using the alarmists' own calculations, it will offset "global warming" by the end of the century by 0.048C (0.086F).

That's 1/20th of one degree Celsius.

The activists, shyster politicians, rent-seekers, dodgy scientists, media second-raters and other useful idiots who are pushing for more climate action are demanding the impossible. If ever they achieved their ambitions, western industrial civilization would collapse.

As Heller puts it:

The reason winter is cold, is because of a lack of solar energy.  The sun is low in the sky, days are short, and it is cloudy much of the time.  Yet climate alarmists want people to be dependent on solar energy for their survival.  They imagine that there is some storage technology which can store huge amounts of energy for long periods of time when the sun isn't shining or the wind isn't blowing. But as Bill Gates pointed out, that technology doesn't exist.

I have degrees in science and engineering, and have worked for most of the last 45 years as both. The job of scientists is to come up with ideas. By contrast, the primary job of engineers is to make things that work. If a bridge or a microprocessor, doesn't work - very bad things will happen. Bad engineering is fatal to humans, companies and civilizations.

This is what I find so puzzling about self-proclaimed "environmental" campaigners. They keep telling us that they want to save the planet, that they are concerned about "future generations", that the people who "deny" climate change are selfish, greedy, and anti-science.

Yet everything these "environmental" campaigners do achieves an effect diametrically opposite to their alleged good intentions.

These greenies are hurting the poor, they're damaging the planet, they're hampering the economic growth that historically has enabled us to overcome or limit such environmental problems as pollution, they're killing birds and bats and orangutans. Yet still, somehow, they keep telling us that they have the moral high ground.

Think about this next time you read some scare story about the coming climate apocalypse or about kids bunking off school in order to protest that more needs to be done: it's not science you're seeing here but hard left politics.

That's the main reason, Scott Adams, why you shouldn't allow yourself to be troubled by the great climate scare: because even if the greenies are right about the science - which they're not, by the way - they are completely wrong about the solutions.

Their claimed intentions may sound good; the outcomes they inflict on us are evil.



from Climate Change Skeptic Blogs via hj on Inoreader http://www.icecap.us/

Cosmic Evil: Peterson’s Pearls (4)

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This is the fourth in a series of posts based upon Jordan Peterson's book Maps of Meaning, published in 1999 after 17 years of research and writing. It is rich in description and insight with many references and quotations from original sources. Reading it I began to copy passages that struck me as especially lucid and pertinent. Those paragraphs of his text are provided below in italics as excerpts selected to explain five themes emerging in my reflections while pondering his book. Cosmic Dichotomy: Peterson's Pearls (1) provides an overview explaining why this is important to me and perhaps to others.

[Note: I use the word "cosmic" since each individual's world is at risk, and as we see in the agitation over climate change, entire social groups can also fear for their collective world.]

Jordan Peterson on Cosmic Evil (Excerpts from Maps of Meaning: The Architecture of Belief Title is link to pdf)

No discussion of the architecture of belief can possibly be considered complete, in the absence of reference to evil. Evil is no longer a popular word, so to speak—the term is generally considered old-fashioned, not applicable in a society that has theoretically dispensed with its religious preoccupations. Acts once defined as evil are now merely considered the consequence of unjust familial, social or economic structures (although this view is not as widespread as it once was). Alternatively, the commission of incomprehensible acts of cruelty and destruction are viewed as symptomatic of some physiological weakness or disease. Seldom are acts of evil considered voluntary or purposeful—committed by someone possessed by an aesthetic that makes art of terror and pain.

Evil, like good, is not something static: it does not merely mean breaking the rules, for example, and is not simply aggression, anger, force, pain, disappointment, anxiety or horror. Life is of course endlessly complicated by the fact that what is bad in one circumstance is positively necessary in the next.

Evil is rejection of and sworn opposition to the process of creative exploration. Evil is proud repudiation of the unknown, and willful failure to understand, transcend and transform the social world. Evil is, in addition—and in consequence—hatred of the virtuous and courageous, precisely on account of their virtue and courage. Evil is the desire to disseminate darkness, for the love of darkness, where there could be light. The spirit of evil underlies all actions that speed along the decrepitude of the world, that foster God's desire to inundate and destroy everything that exists.

Many kings are tyrants, or moral decadents, because they are people—and many people are tyrants, or moral decadents. We cannot say "never again" as a consequence of the memory of the Holocaust, because we do not understand the Holocaust, and it is impossible to remember what has not been understood. We do not understand the Holocaust because we do not comprehend ourselves. Human beings, very much like ourselves, produced the moral catastrophes of the Second World War (and of Stalin's Soviet Union, and of Pol Pot's Cambodia…). "Never forget" means "know thyself": recognize and understand that evil twin, that mortal enemy, who is part and parcel of every individual.

The heroic tendency—the archetypal savior—is an eternal spirit, which is to say, a central and permanent aspect of human being. The same is true, precisely, of the "adversarial" tendency: the capacity for endless denial, and the desire to make everything suffer for the outrage of its existence, is an ineradicable intrapsychic element of the individual. The great dramatists and religious thinkers of the world have been able to grasp this fact, at least implicitly, and to transmit it in story and image; modern analytic thinkers and existential theorists have attempted to abstract these ideas upward into "higher consciousness," and to present them in logical and purely semantic form. Sufficient material has been gathered to present a compelling portrait of evil.

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The image of the devil is the form that the idea of evil has taken, for better or worse, at least in the West. We have not yet developed an explicit model of evil that would allow us to forget, transcend or otherwise dispense with this mythological representation. We rationalize our lack of such understanding by presuming that the very notion of evil is archaic. This is a truly ridiculous presumption, in this century of indescribable horror. In our ignorance and complacency, we deride ancient stories about the nature of evil, equating them half-consciously with childish things best put away. This is an exceedingly arrogant position. There is no evidence whatsoever that we understand the nature of evil any better than our forebears, despite our psychology, even though our expanded technological power has made us much more dangerous when we are possessed.

It is reason's belief in its own omniscience—manifest in procedure and image, if not in word—that "unconsciously" underlies totalitarianism in its many destructive guises. . . It is not that easy to understand why the act of presuming omniscience is reasonably construed as precisely opposite to the act of creative exploration (as the adversary is opposite to the hero). What "knowing everything" means, however—at least in practice—is that the unknown no longer exists, and that further exploration has therefore been rendered superfluous (even treacherous).

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Rally organized for Nicolae Ceausescu in 1978. Photo source: fototeca.iiccr.ro

The arrogance of the totalitarian stance is ineradicably opposed to the "humility" of creative exploration. [Humility—it is only constant admission of error and capacity for error (admission of "sinful and ignorant nature") that allows for recognition of the unknown, and then for update of knowledge and adaptation in behavior. Such humility is, somewhat paradoxically, courageous—as admission of error and possibility for error constitutes the necessary precondition for confrontation with the unknown. This makes genuine cowardice the "underground" motivation for the totalitarian presumption: the true authoritarian wants everything unpredictable to vanish. The authoritarian protects himself from knowledge of this cowardice by a show of patriotic advocacy, often at apparent cost to himself.]

It has taken mankind thousands of years of work to develop dawning awareness of the nature of evil—to produce a detailed dramatic representation of the process that makes up the core of human maladaptation and voluntarily produced misery. It seems premature to throw away the fruit of that labor or to presume that it is something other than what it appears before we understand what it signifies.

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The fact of mortal vulnerability—that defining characteristic of the individual, and the "reason" for his emergent disgust with life—may be rendered even more "unjust" and "intolerable" by the specific manifestations of such vulnerability. Some are poorer than others, some weaker, some unsightlier—all less able, in some regard (and some apparently less able in all regards). Recognition of the seemingly arbitrary distribution of skill and advantage adds additional rationally "justifiable" grounds for the development of a philosophy based on resentment and antipathy—sometimes, "on behalf" of an entire class, other times, sheerly for the purposes of a specific individual. Under such circumstances, the desire for revenge on life itself may become paramount above all else, particularly for the "unfairly oppressed."

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Riots in Watts, Los Angeles 1965.

Evil is voluntary rejection of the process that makes life tolerable, justified by observation of life's terrible difficulty. This rejection is presumptious, premature, because it is based on acceptance of a provisional judgment as final: "everything is insufficient, and is therefore without worth, and nothing whatsoever can be done to rectify the situation." Judgment of this sort precludes all hope of cure.

The development of the adversary therefore follows a predictable path, from pride ("Pride and worse Ambition threw me down"), through envy, to revenge—to the ultimate construction of a character possessed by infinite hatred and envy.

Tolstoy's nihilism—disgust with the individual and human society, combined with the desire for the eradication of existence—is one logical "evil" consequence of heightened self-consciousness. It is not, however, the only consequence, and may not even be the most subtle. Far more efficient—far more hidden from the perpetrator himself, and from his closest observers—is heightened identification with tradition and custom. This is envelopment in the guise of patriotism, to facilitate the turning of state power toward destruction.

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Group membership, social being, represents a necessary advance over childish dependence, but the spirit of the group requires its pound of flesh. Absolute identification with the group means rejection of individual difference: means rejection of "deviation," even "weakness," from the group viewpoint; means repression of individuality, sacrifice of the mythic fool; means abandonment of the simple and insufficient "younger brother." The group, of course, merely feels that it is doing its duty by insisting upon such sacrifice; it believes, with sufficient justification, that it is merely protecting its structure.

Denial of unique individuality turns the wise traditions of the past into the blind ruts of the present. Application of the letter of the law when the spirit of the law is necessary makes a mockery of culture. Following in the footsteps of others seems safe, and requires no thought—but it is useless to follow a well-trodden trail when the terrain itself has changed. The individual who fails to modify his habits and presumptions as a consequence of change is deluding himself—is denying the world—is trying to replace reality itself with his own feeble wish. By pretending things are other than they are, he undermines his own stability, destabilizes his future, and transforms the past from shelter to prison.

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The Mausoleum of Dead Presidents in Pyongyang.

The individual embodiment of collective past wisdom is turned into the personification of inflexible stupidity by means of the lie. The lie is straightforward, voluntary rejection of what is currently known to be true. Nobody knows what is finally true, by definition, but honest people make the best possible use of their experience. The moral theories of the truthful, however incomplete from some hypothetical transcendent perspective, account for what they have seen and for who they are, insofar as that has been determined in the course of diligent effort.

This is to say, merely, that the truth of children and adults differs, because their experience—their reality—differs. The truthful child does not think like an adult: he thinks like a child, with his eyes open. The adult, however, who still uses the morality of the child—despite his adult capacities—he is lying, and he knows it.

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The lie is willful adherence to a previously functional schema of action and interpretation—a moral paradigm—despite new experience that cannot be comprehended in terms of that schema; despite new desire, which cannot find fulfillment within that framework. The lie is willful rejection of information apprehended as anomalous on terms defined and valued by the individual doing the rejecting. That is to say: the liar chooses his own game, sets his own rules and then cheats. This cheating is failure to grow, to mature; it is rejection of the process of consciousness itself.

The unknown has to be "mined" for precise significance, before it can be said to have been experienced, let alone comprehended; has to be transformed, laboriously, from pure affect into revision of presumption and action (into "psyche" or "personality"). "Not doing" is therefore the simplest and most common lie: the individual can just "not act," "not investigate," and the pitfalls of error will remain unmanifest, at least temporarily. This rejection of the process of creative exploration means lack of effortful update of procedural and declarative memory, adaptation to the present as if it still were the past, refusal to think.

The identity of the individual with his culture protects him from the terrible unknown, and allows him to function as an acceptable member of society. This slavish function strengthens the group. But the group states that certain ways of thinking and acting are all that are acceptable, and these particular ways do not exhaust the unknown and necessary capabilities of the human being. The rigid, grinning social mask is the individual's pretence that he is "the same person" as everyone else (that is, the same dead person)— that he is not a natural disaster, not a stranger, not strange—that he is not deviant, weak, cowardly, inferior and vengeful. The true individual, however—the honest fool—stands outside the protective enclave of acceptance, unredeemed—the personification of weakness, inferiority, vengefulness, cowardice, difference. He cannot make the cut, and because he cannot make the cut, he is the target of the tyranny of the group (and of his own judgment, insofar as he is that group). But man as a fool, weak, ignorant and vulnerable, is what the group is not: a true individual, truly existing, truly experiencing, truly suffering (if it could only be admitted).

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The adversarial position, deceit, is predicated on the belief that the knowledge of the present comprises all necessary knowledge—is predicated on the belief that the unknown has finally been conquered. This belief is equivalent to denial of vulnerability, equivalent to the adoption of omniscience—"what I do is all there is to do, what I know is all there is to know." Inextricably associated with the adoption of such a stance is denial, implicit or explicit, of the existence, the possibility, and the necessity of the heroic—as everything worthwhile has already been done, as all problems have been solved, as paradise has already been spread before us.

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Denial of the heroic promotes fascism, absolute identification with the cultural canon. Everything that is known, is known within a particular historically determined framework, predicated upon mythologically expressed assumptions. Denial or avoidance of the unknown therefore concomitantly necessitates deification of a particular previously established viewpoint.

Denial of the heroic promotes decadence, equally—absolute rejection of the order of tradition; absolute rejection of order itself. This pattern of apprehension and behavior seems far removed from that of the fascist, but the decadent is just as arrogant as his evidently more rigid peer. He has merely identified himself absolutely with no thing, rather than with one thing. He is rigidly convinced of the belief that nothing matters— convinced that nothing is of value, despite the opinions of (clearly deluded, weak and despicable) others; convinced that nothing is worth the effort. The decadent functions in this manner like an anti-Midas—everything he touches turns to ashes.

Imelda Marcos in Manila among her 3000 pairs of shoes.

The normal individual solves his problem of adaptation to the unknown by joining a group. A group, by definition, is composed of those who have adopted a central structure of value, and who therefore behave, in the presence of other group members, identically—and if not identically, at least predictably. The fascist adapts to the group with a vengeance. He builds stronger and stronger walls around himself and those who are "like him," in an ever more futile attempt to keep the threatening unknown at bay. He does this because his worldview is incomplete.

The decadent, by contrast, sees nothing but the tyranny of the state. Since the adversarial aspect of the individual remains conveniently hidden from his view, he cannot perceive that his "rebellion" is nothing but avoidance of discipline. He views chaos as a beneficial home, seeing the source of human evil in social regulation. . . The decadent looks to subvert the process of maturation—looks for a "way out" of group affiliation. Group membership requires adoption of at least adolescent responsibility, and this burden may seem too much to bear, as a consequence of prolonged immaturity of outlook.

The fascist and the decadent regard each other as opposites, as mortal enemies. They are in actuality two sides of the same bent coin.

This "theory of the genesis of social psychopathology"—this theory of a direct relationship obtaining between personal choice and fascistic or decadent personality and social movement—finds its precise echo in Taoist philosophy, and can be more thoroughly comprehended through application of that perspective. . . Much of ancient Chinese philosophy (cosmology, medicine, political theory, religious thinking) is predicated on the idea that pathology is caused by a relative excess of one primordial "substance" or the other. The goal of the Chinese sage—physician, spiritual leader or social administrator—is to establish or re-establish harmony between the fundamental "feminine" and "masculine" principles, and to diagnose and cure the faulty action or irresponsible inactions that led to their original discord. The schematic representation of Yin and Yang, portrayed below, utilizes the image of a circle to represent totality; the paisleys that make up that circle are opposed but balanced.

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The fascist, who will not face the reality and necessity of the unknown, hides his vulnerable face in a "pathological excess of order." The decadent, who refuses to see that existence is not possible without order, hides his immaturity from himself and others in a "pathological excess of chaos." The fascist is willing to sacrifice painful freedom for order, and to pretend that his unredeemed misery is meaningless, so that he does not have to do anything for himself. The decadent believes that freedom can be attained without discipline and responsibility, because he is ignorant of the terrible nature of "the undifferentiated ground of reality" and is unwilling to bear the burden of order. When he starts to suffer, as he certainly will, he will not allow the reality of his suffering to prove to him that some things are real, because acceptance of that proof would force him to believe and to act (would force him as well toward painful realization of the counterproductive and wasteful stupidity of his previous position).

The decadent says, "there is no such thing as to know"—and never attempts to accomplish anything. Like his authoritarian counterpart, he makes himself "immune from error," since mistakes are always made with regard to some valued, fixed and desired end. The decadent says, "look, here is something new, something inexplicable; that is evidence, is it not, that everything that I have been told is wrong. History is unreliable; rules are arbitrary; accomplishment is illusory. Why do anything, under such circumstances?" But he is living on borrowed time—feeding, like a parasite, on the uncomprehended body of the past.

The invention, establishment and perfection of the concentration camp, the efficient genocidal machine, might be regarded as the crowning achievement of human technological and cultural endeavor, motivated by resentment and loathing for life. Invented by the English, rendered efficient by the Germans, applied on a massive scale by the Soviets and the Chinese, revivified by the Balkan conflict—perfection of the factory whose sole product is death has required truly multinational enterprise. Such enterprise constitutes, perhaps, the prime accomplishment of the cooperative bureaucratization of hatred, cowardice and deceit.  Tens of millions of innocent people have been dehumanized, enslaved and sacrificed in these efficient disassembly lines, in the course of the last century, to help their oppressors maintain pathological stability and consistency of moral presumption, enforced through terror, motivated by adherence to the lie.

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The Rwandan massacres, the killing fields in Cambodia, the tens of millions dead (by Solzhenitsyn's estimate) as a consequence of internal repression in the Soviet Union, the untold legions butchered during China's Cultural Revolution [the Great Leap Forward (!), another black joke, accompanied upon occasion, in the particular, by devouring of the victim], the planned humiliation and rape of hundreds of Muslim women in Yugoslavia, the holocaust of the Nazis, the carnage perpetrated by the Japanese in mainland China— such events are not attributable to human kinship with the animal, the innocent animal, or even by the desire to protect territory, interpersonal and intrapsychic, but by a deep-rooted spiritual sickness, endemic to mankind, the consequence of unbearable self-consciousness, apprehension of destiny in suffering and limitation, and pathological refusal to face the consequences thereof.

The fact, regardless of content, is not evil; it is mere (terrible) actuality. It is the attitude to the fact that has a moral or immoral nature. There are no evil facts—although there are facts about evil; it is denial of the unacceptable fact that constitutes evil—at least insofar as human control extends. The suppression of unbearable fact transforms the conservative tendency to preserve into the authoritarian tendency to crush; transforms the liberal wish to transform into the decadent desire to subvert. Confusing evil with the unbearable fact, rather than with the tendency to deny the fact, is like equating the good with the static product of heroism, rather than with the dynamic act of heroism itself. Confusion of evil with the fact—the act of blaming the messenger—merely provides rationale for the act of denial, justification for savage repression, and mask of morality for decadence and authoritarianism.

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The highest value toward which effort is devoted determines what will become elevated, and what subjugated, in the course of individual and social existence. If security or power is valued above all else, then all will become subject to the philosophy of expedience. In the long term, adoption of such a policy leads to development of rigid, weak personality (or social environment) or intrapsychic dissociation and social chaos.

The personality of this adversary comes in two forms, so to speak—although these two forms are inseparably linked. The fascist sacrifices his soul, which would enable him to confront change on his own, to the group, which promises to protect him from everything unknown. The decadent, by contrast, refuses to join the social world, and clings rigidly to his own ideas—merely because he is too undisciplined to serve as an apprentice. The fascist wants to crush everything different, and then everything; the decadent immolates himself, and builds the fascist from his ashes. The bloody excesses of the twentieth century, manifest most evidently in the culture of the concentration camp, stand as testimony to the desires of the adversary and as monument to his power.

Trotsky refers to the old principle which St. Paul states in 2 Thessalonians chapter 3:10 "We gave you this rule: if a man will not work, he shall not eat." And before that Deuteronomy 25:4: "Do not muzzle an ox while it is treading out the grain."

The pitfalls of fascism and decadence may be avoided through identification with the hero, the true individual. The hero organizes the demands of social being and the responsibilities of his own soul into a coherent, hierarchically arranged unit. He stands on the border between order and chaos, and serves the group as creator and agent of renewal. The hero's voluntary contact with the unknown transforms it into something benevolent—into the eternal source, in fact, of strength and ability. Development of such strength—attendant upon faith in the conditions of experience— enables him to stand outside the group, when necessary, and to use it as a tool, rather than as armor. The hero rejects identification with the group as the ideal of life, preferring to follow the dictates of his conscience and his heart. His identification with meaning—and his refusal to sacrifice meaning for security—renders existence acceptable, despite its tragedy.

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