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By Alexandros G. Sfakianakis,Anapafseos 5 Agios Nikolaos 72100 Crete,Greece,00302841026182,00306932607174
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by Judith Curry
Some reactions from Wednesday's Congressional testimony.
I'm starting this post while sitting in the Phoenix airport waiting for my delayed flight home (by the time I get home, I will have been up for 24 hours today/tomorrow).
Sometimes I wonder why I bother.
Well, maybe tomorrow I will remember. The response to my testimony has been gratifying, from people across the political spectrum.
And the response from some segments has been very illuminating. Sometimes I think these people don't really want to make progress in addressing climate change, but rather are using the issue as a club to enforce their tribalism and/or achieve social justice objectives. I think they actually LIKE the gridlock and climate wars.
Climate hypochondria
First, the climate hypochondriacs. Some people (including one of the Members) took issue with the following statement in my testimony:
"Based upon our current assessment of the science, the threat does not seem to be an existential one on the time scale of the 21st century, even in its most alarming incarnation."
I referred to AR5 WGII:
"Every single catastrophic scenario considered by the IPCC AR5 (WGII, Table 12.4) has a rating of very unlikely or exceptionally unlikely and/or has low confidence. The only tipping point that the IPCC considers likely in the 21st century is disappearance of Arctic summer sea ice (which is fairly reversible, since sea ice freezes every winter)."
In hindsight, I should have hit this a bit harder. See my previous posts:
The IPCC AR5 refers to 'reasons for concern.' I won't rehash my previous posts here, take a look.
Thinking that catastrophes like major hurricane landfalls, massive forest fires etc. will be 'cured' by eliminating fossil fuel emissions is laughable. Well its not really funny. Thinking that eliminating fossil fuel emissions will 'solve' the problem of extreme weather events is very sad, sort of on the level of doing rain dances. Every thing that goes wrong, they blame on fossil fuel driven climate change.
Imagine how surprised they would be if we were ever to be successful at eliminating fossil fuel emissions, and then we still had bad weather!
Tribalism
The response on twitter to my testimony from the usual suspects (e.g. Michael Mann, Dana Nuccitelli, Bob Ward and their acolytes) has been entertaining. Its actually a waste of space to reproduce any of it here, check it out on twitter if you have the stomach.
Of course they loved Kim Cobb's testimony and thought mine was horrible, in spite of the fact that we said comparable things about climate policy.
Kim Cobb's testimony
In 2003 or so, I hired Kim Cobb at Georgia Tech. During my later years at Georgia Tech, we disagreed on ALOT of things.
But I will give credit where it is due:
Here is excerpt from the first paragraph of her written testimony:
"My message today is simple: there are many no-regrets, win-win actions to reduce the growing costs of climate change, but we're going to have to come together to form new alliances, in our home communities, across our states, and yes, even in Washington. There are plenty of prizes for early, meaningful action. These include cleaner air and water, healthier, more resilient communities, a competitive edge in the low-carbon 21st century global economy, and the mantle of global leadership on the challenge of our time. I'm confident that through respectful discourse, we will recognize that our shared values unite us in seeking a better tomorrow for all Americans."
She discusses adaptation, innovation, energy efficiency, land use practices, as well as CO2 emissions reductions.
Compare her recommendations with my closing recommendation (slightly modified on the fly, from what was given in my previous post):
"Bipartisan support seems feasible for pragmatic efforts to accelerate energy innovation, build resilience to extreme weather events, pursue no regrets pollution reduction measures, and land use practices. Each of these efforts has justifications independent of their benefits for climate mitigation and adaptation. These efforts provide the basis of a climate policy that addresses both near-term economic and social justice concerns, and also the longer-term goals of mitigation."
Is it just me, or is there common ground here?
The no-regrets angle is key here. Richard Lindzen reminded me that 'no-regrets' used to be the appropriate framework for climate policy:
"The conclusions of the 1992 report of the NAS (not NRC) "Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming" remain: Don't take actions that are not otherwise justified."
The impediment of climate scientists
By insisting on fighting the climate science wars in an attempt to win a climate policy debate, climate scientists continue to set this up for failure. From the Hartwell Paper:
"it is not just that science does not dictate climate policy; it is that climate policy alone does not dictate environmental or development or energy policies."
By ostracizing any climate scientists who engage with energy companies or Republicans, and pretending that that energy policy depends on 100% scientific consensus in a speaking consensus to power framework, these climate scientists are setting climate policy up for failure.
Speaking of energy companies, I'm relieved that this issue did not come up in the Hearing, after the Grijalva inquisition of a few years ago. By the way, Kim Cobb holds the Georgia Power Chair at Georgia Tech. The activists presumably think that is fine; its only bad when someone like me engages with energy companies. Can anyone think of why energy companies should not have access to the best climate information available and advice from climate scientists?
Winning
Climate scientist/activists need to recognize that any U.S. climate policy will require bipartisan support (that includes the dreaded Republicans). Also, energy companies are part of the solution. Attacking scientists such as myself and other climate scientists that testify for the Republicans is pointless.
No-regrets, win-win solutions seem politically palatable to the Republicans; it remains to be seen if Democrats will make incremental no-regrets policies such as proposed here the enemy of their grandiose ideas such as Green New Deal.
Selenite and selenate are two main selenium (Se) forms absorbed by plants. The comparative effects of selenite and/or selenate on Se uptake and translocation in plants in spite of their coexistence in the environment are still unclear. Therefore, tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) seedlings were grown in a hydroponic solution with exogenous selenite, selenate, or selenite and selenate mixed, and Se concentrations in shoots, roots, and xylem sap were measured after harvest. Results showed that selenite (> 0.1 mg Se L−1) could cause phytotoxicity more easily than selenate (> 1 mg Se L−1) under hydroponic conditions. And the absorbability rate of tomato to selenate was higher than that to selenite when Se application level was 0.0175–0.2998 mg L−1, while the opposite result was observed in other Se concentrations. More Se accumulated in roots and Se(VI) in the xylem sap decreased when both Se forms supplied. This study demonstrated that the difference between selenite and selenate on Se uptake and translocation in tomatoes depended on exogenous Se concentration. And selenite could inhibit the absorption and translocation of selenate when supplied with both Se forms.
Four different mixed fuels consisted of leather waste, coal, and sewage sludge were combusted in a lab-scale entrained flow fluidized bed furnace. The influence of blending ratio on emission characteristics of SO2, NOx, HCl, particulate matter (PM), heavy metals, and polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) was studied. Results showed that the mixing of coal with sewage sludge had a complex effect on the emission characteristics. On the one hand, with more sewage sludge blending in the mixed fuel, the acid gas pollutant (SO2, NOx) decreased a lot, and the recovery of volatile heavy metals (Cd, Pb) increased at the same time. Furthermore, the leaching toxicity of Cr in the fly ash and bottom ash went down below the national standard with the adding of sewage sludge. On the other hand, the mixing of sewage sludge which consisted of more ash content resulted in the increase of the PM emission. Moreover, the high content of Cu and chlorine in the sewage sludge can promote the formation of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) when the fuel 3 and 4 were combusted. Most importantly, the concentration of toxic PCDD/Fs in the flue gas produced from fuel 3 and fuel 4 was successfully controlled down below 0.20 ng I-TEQ/Nm3 by the active carbon.
Parmaceutically active compounds like diclofenac (DFS), ibuprofen (IBP), and other drugs that persist in the environment are listed as emerging contaminants. These escape from normal wastewater treatment plants and find their way to water streams; therefore, alternate treatment processes are needed. Herein, a sorbent material is reported that is prepared throug hydrotermal carbonization from dried fruit powder of Zizipus mauritiana L. (TC-ZM) and applied for simultaneous removal of DFS and IBP. Carbonized material (TC-ZM) was found as agglomerates of approximately 1 μm particle size with surface area of 1160 m2/g having oxygen functional groups (e.g., COO, O, C=O) on surface. Simultaneous removal of IBP and DFS onto TC-ZM was studied using response surface methodology with a set of 18 experiments using factors such as pH, amount of sorbent, contact time, and sorbate concentration. Maximum removal efficiency was obtained 88% and 97% for DFS and for IBP, respectively, with adsorption capacity of 2.03 mmol g−1 for DFS and 2.54 mmol g−1 for IBP. Kinetics modeling and "mean free energy" values predicted that sorption is mainly governed by pysical interactions followed by "pore filling" mechanism for uptake of DFS and IBP.
Warwick Hughes (h/t Dave Brewer) points out that on Dec 20th the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicted that the Townsville region had only a 1 in 3 chance of exceeding the average rainfall in January.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, prediction, Jan 2019 rainfall.
…
How that turned out one month later:
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, January rainfall, 2019.
Or graphed as the rainfall anomaly rather than as the percentage of the mean:
….
Predicting rainfall in Australia is very difficult. It's not that the BoM gets it wrong — it's that they pretend they can do it that matters. Why bother issuing one month forecasts?
Ten days out they were still hopelessly wrongAs Warwick Hughes further notes they also predicted on Jan 17th that February in Townsville would only have a 45% chance of exceeding the average rainfall. The downpour started on Jan 27th. At this point, after one week in February the area has already had over four times the normal rainfall for the whole month.
REFERENCESAustralian Bureau of Meteorology, Townsville Aero, rainfall data, daily.
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Current rainfall maps.
Rating: 10.0/10 (1 vote [...]
The objective of this study was to investigate the concentration distribution of indoor air pollutants in taxis and ships (passengers) which are frequently used for public transportation and recreational activities in South Korea. In addition, it aimed to assess air quality factors to establish and evaluate the health risks of exposure to polluted indoor air. Particulate matter (PM10) concentrations were not affected by the number of passengers, time of day, and driving characteristics because there were only a few passengers (2 to 4 people) and the space was confined. In the ships, indoor air pollutants responded more sensitively to the operation characteristics depending on the time of sailing (i.e., anchoring and departure, movement of vehicles on the ship, movement of passengers, combustion in the shop, and ventilation) than to the number of people boarding and alighting. The carbon dioxide concentrations in different ship rooms did not vary according to season and degree of congestion; however, there were differences between different ships. These differences may result from the size, type, and operating characteristics of the ships. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and aldehydes in new taxis exceeded the standard levels during summer. VOC concentrations in ships were particularly high during summer when the outdoor temperature was high. Similar observations were made for other means of transportation. The risk assessment depended on the means of transportation and demonstrated that mortality risks due to PM10 and excess carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks from VOCs and aldehydes were within safety levels.
An appraisal of seawater intrusion into the coastal aquifers is one of the major issues for groundwater resource management. The GALDIT model applies to the analysis of multiple parameters using systematic GIS techniques for mapping and assessment of seawater intrusion vulnerability. It demarcates the mapping of potential vulnerability that shows a higher vulnerability to seawater intrusion in various parts of the coast and the estimated vulnerability index value of 7.50 and 9.64. An area of 33.0 km2 spread in the low-lying coastal area comprising estuaries, salt marshes, and saltpans shows the high vulnerability condition with an estimated vulnerability value of 6.42–7.50. An area of 73.20 km2 spread over coastal and alluvial plains experiences moderate vulnerability (temporal salinity in the groundwater sources) with an estimated vulnerability index value of 5.46–6.42. Aquifers underlying coastal uplands (hard rock formations) and some parts of accretionary beaches (2.05 km2) are relatively protected fresh groundwater sources, wherein the estimated vulnerability index is 4.55–5.46. The vulnerability mapping of the GALDIT model using hydrochemical analysis of primary groundwater parameters such as TDS, Cl−, HCO3, and Cl−/HCO3 ratio is validated. Higher concentration of TDS (2637–4162 mg/l) and Cl− (1268–2347 mg/l) is taken for the areas falling under higher vulnerability to seawater intrusion, especially in the placer mining sites and coastal areas facing erosion. Similarly, the groundwater sources of the low-lying areas including estuaries, salt marshes, saltpans, and backwater were noted to have higher values of Cl−/HCO3 with a rationality of 9.87–12.18. Hydrological facies shows the highest concentration of NaCl in the groundwater sources within the proximity of eroded beaches, saltwater bodies, and sand mining areas. A hydrochemical facies evolution (HFE) diagram represents the hydrochemical facies of groundwater elements that shows an intrusion of seawater into the coastal aquifers underlying the very high vulnerable zones. Higher bicarbonate concentration (233–318 mg/l) is noticed in the upland areas and some parts of dunes and accreted beaches, sandy coasts, and uplands. Vulnerability analysis reveals that those areas near saltwater bodies and eroding coasts are prone to lateral and vertical diffusion of saltwater. The geodatabase developed through such modeling studies can help in planning and developing activities for sustainable groundwater resource management in coastal areas.
We used a green sol–gel synthesis method to fabricate a novel nanoporous copper aluminosilicate (CAS) material. Nanoporous CAS was characterized using X-ray powder diffraction (XRD), field emission transmission and scanning electron microscopies (FE-TEM/FE-SEM), Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, and optical analyses. The CAS was also evaluated for use as a promising disinfectant for the inactivation of waterborne pathogens. The antimicrobial action and minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) of this CAS disinfectant were determined against eight microorganisms (Escherichia coli, Salmonella enterica, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus faecalis, Candida albicans, and Aspergillus niger). An antimicrobial susceptibility testing of CAS was measured. Results of disc diffusion method pointed out that the diameters of the zone using well diffusion were wider than disc diffusion methods, and the findings also showed that the MIC of the CAS disinfectant against E. coli, S. enterica, and P. aeruginosa was 100 mg/L within 20 min of contact time. Meanwhile, the MIC of the CAS disinfectant was 100 mg/L within 40 min of contact time for the other strains. The efficacy of antimicrobial action (100%) reached within 20 to 40 min against all tested microbes. Herein, the antimicrobial susceptibility testing of CAS disinfectant showed no toxicity for human and bacterial cells. It can be concluded that nanoporous CAS is a promising, economically, and worthy weapon for water disinfection.
Can Gio district is located in the coastal area of Ho Chi Minh City, southern Vietnam. Discharge of wastewater from Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces to the rivers of Can Gio has led to concerns about the accumulation of trace metals (As, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn) in the coastal sediments. The main objective of this study was to assess the distribution of As, Cu, Cr, Ni, Pb, and Zn in surface and core sediments and to evaluate the contamination status in relation to local background values, as well as the potential release of these selected trace metals from sediments to the water environment. Sediment characteristization, including determination of fine fraction, pH, organic matter, and major elements (Al, Fe, Ca, K, Mg, and S), was carried out to investigate which parameters affect the trace metal enrichment. Fine fraction and Al contents were found to be the controlling proxies affecting the distribution of trace metals while other sediment characteristics did not show any clear influence on trace metals' distribution. Although As concentrations in the sediments were much higher compared to its reference value in other areas, the enrichment factor based on local background values suggests minor contamination of this element as well as for Cr, Cu, and Pb. Risk assessment suggested a medium to very high risk of Mn, Zn, and Ni under acidification. Of importance is also that trace metals in sediments were not easily mobilized by organic complexation based on their low extractabilities by ammonium-EDTA extraction.
This article presents the results of investigations carried out to evaluate the improvement in combustion, performance, and emission characteristics of a diesel engine fueled with neat petro-diesel (PD), soybean biodiesel (SB), and 50% SB blended PD (PD50SB) by using carbon nanotube (CNT) as an additive. The acid–alkaline-based transesterification process with sodium hydroxide (NaOH) as a catalyst was applied to derive the methyl ester of SB. A mass fraction of 100 ppm CNT nanoparticle was blended with base fuels by using an ultrasonicator and the physiochemical properties were measured based on EN standards. The measured physiochemical properties are in good agreement with standard limits. The experimental evaluations were carried out under varying brake mean effective pressure (BMEP) conditions in a single-cylinder, four-stroke, and natural aspirated research diesel engine at a constant speed of 1500 rpm. The results reveal that the SB and its blend promote shorter ignition delay period (IDP) that is resulting in lower in-cylinder pressure (ICP) and net heat release rate (NHR) compared to PD. The SB and its blend increase the brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC), and reduce the brake specific energy consumption (BSEC) and exhaust gas temperature (EGT), due to lower heating value, and efficient combustion, respectively. As far as the emission characteristics are concerned, the SB and its blend promote lower magnitude of hydrocarbon (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), and smoke emissions compared to PD except for oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission. The CNT nanoparticle inclusion with base fuels significantly improves the combustion, performance, and emissions level irrespective of engine load conditions.
From The Global Warming Policy Forum (GWPF)
It has been an encouraging start to the contest for the year's loopiest climate story.
First out of the blocks is a cracker from the geography department at University College London with the suggestion that Spanish colonisation in the Americas contributed to global cooling.
Early interest is also being shown in a paper that appeared in the Journal of the American Heart Association suggesting that a rise in temperatures stemming from climate change may increase the number of US infants born with congenital heart defects. This presumably opens up a whole new field of science – and funding – investigating the effect of latitude on vast numbers of ailments.
The global drop in temperatures started in 1300, long before the Spanish invaded the Americas. The UCL team suggested that reductions in population after the Spanish conquests and subsequent increases in tropical jungle led to more CO2 being used from the atmosphere.
The report seems to suggest that this amounted to around three parts per million in the atmosphere. If true, this would be a minute amount in an atmosphere that held at the time round 280ppm of CO2. Three ppm is well within any genuine scientific margin of error.
The 'mini ice age' was caused by many natural events and continued until around 1850. It was characterised by numerous variations in temperature across different time periods and regions in the northern hemisphere.
Needless to say the BBC led the media charge and was all over this story. Linking climate change with the genocidal activities of white colonists just ticks so many boxes, even for so-called science correspondents.
Continued here.
Another year, another claim of "hottest" or "warmest years." So-called "Hottest year" claims are purely political statements designed to persuade the public that the government needs to take action on man-made climate change. Once again, the media and others are hyping temperature changes year-to-year so small as to be within the margin of error. Such temperature claims [...]
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http://bit.ly/2td1Ja5 RUSH: You know what else the left is ticked off about today? What did Trump not mention last night in the State of the Union address? He didn't talk about climate change. He didn't talk about it one time, except that he did. They just don't know it. I've looked at a bunch of [...]
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