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By Alexandros G. Sfakianakis,Anapafseos 5 Agios Nikolaos 72100 Crete,Greece,00302841026182,00306932607174





Public Release: 21-Jan-2019 Southwest part of the island could be major contributor to sea level rise Ohio State University COLUMBUS, Ohio – Greenland is melting faster than scientists previously thought–and will likely lead to faster sea level rise–thanks to the continued, accelerating warming of the Earth's atmosphere, a new study has found. Scientists concerned about…
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By Paul Homewood
h/t Philip Bratby
It's worse than we thought, says the Guardian:
Greenland is melting faster than scientists previously thought, with the pace of ice loss increasing four-fold since 2003, new research has found.
Enormous glaciers in Greenland are depositing ever larger chunks of ice into the Atlantic ocean, where it melts. But scientists have found that the largest ice loss in the decade from 2003 actually occurred in the southwest region of the island, which is largely glacier-free.
This suggests surface ice is simply melting as global temperatures rise, causing gushing rivers of meltwater to flow into the ocean and push up sea levels. South-west Greenland, not previously thought of as a source of woe for coastal cities, is set to "become a major future contributor to sea level rise," the research states.
"We knew we had one big problem with increasing rates of ice discharge by some large outlet glaciers," said Michael Bevis, lead author of the paper and a professor of geodynamics at Ohio State University. "But now we recognize a second serious problem: increasingly, large amounts of ice mass are going to leave as meltwater, as rivers that flow into the sea.
The research provides fresh evidence of the dangers posed to vulnerable coastal places as diverse as Miami, Shanghai, Bangladesh and various Pacific islands as climate change shrinks the world's land-based ice.
"The only thing we can do is adapt and mitigate further global warming – it's too late for there to be no effect," Bevis said. "This is going to cause additional sea level rise. We are watching the ice sheet hit a tipping point.
"We're going to see faster and faster sea level rise for the foreseeable future. Once you hit that tipping point, the only question is: How severe does it get?"
The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, used data from Nasa's gravity recovery and climate experiment (known as Grace) and GPS stations scattered across Greenland to analyze changes in ice mass.
This showed that Greenland lost around 280bn tons of ice per year between 2002 and 2016, enough to raise the worldwide sea level by 0.03 inches annually. If all of Greenland's vast ice sheet, 3km thick in places, was to melt, global sea levels would rise by seven meters, or more than 20ft, drowning most coastal settlements.
When the long term numbers are not scary enough, concentrate on one year's weather instead!
I will explain.
Science Daily has more detail on the Bevis paper here. For some reason, it does not appear on the PNAS site yet.
Science Daily elaborate on the "faster than 2003" claim:
Bevis' team used data from GRACE and from GPS stations scattered around Greenland's coast to identify changes in ice mass. The patterns they found show an alarming trend — by 2012, ice was being lost at nearly four times the rate that prevailed in 2003.
Bevis said a natural weather phenomenon — the North Atlantic Oscillation, which brings warmer air to West Greenland, as well as clearer skies and more solar radiation — was building on man-made climate change to cause unprecedented levels of melting and runoff. Global atmospheric warming enhances summertime melting, especially in the southwest. The North Atlantic Oscillation is a natural — if erratic — cycle that causes ice to melt under normal circumstances. When combined with man-made global warming, though, the effects are supercharged.
"These oscillations have been happening forever," Bevis said. "So why only now are they causing this massive melt? It's because the atmosphere is, at its baseline, warmer. The transient warming driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation was riding on top of more sustained, global warming."
But what happened in 2012?
Due to that weather event, the NAO, Greenland experienced an unusually mild year, with in particular a sunny summer.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2018/07/01/greenland-temperatures-in-2017/
Unsurprisingly, therefore, the Surface Mass Balance of the Greenland ice sheet shrank slightly, due to both reduced snowfall and ice melt:
http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
However, that was the exception. Last year, for instance, the SMB grew much more than the long term mean, as it did the year before.
Bevis' claim that ice loss in 2012 was greater than in 2003 is based on one year's weather, and not the long term trend.
It is worth emphasising here that the SMB reflects both snowfall and ice melt, but not calving of glaciers. It is, of course, ice melt that Bevis is mainly concerned about here.
As we can see from the above temperature chart for SW Greenland, with the exception of 2012, temperatures since 2003 are little different to the 1920s to 40s, the last time the AMO was in warm phase, as it presently is.
There is simply no evidence at all of Greenland's climate getting any warmer over the long term.
As for the lurid threats of multi meter sea level rise, according to DMI loss of ice from the Greenland ice sheet (from all causes) since 2003 has accounted for about 0.65mm a year of global sea level rise, little more than 2 inches per century.
Bevis asks:
"These oscillations have been happening forever. So why only now are they causing this massive melt? "
Because we have only been monitoring the melt for the last decade or two!
We know that global sea level rise was just as great in the early to mid 20thC, and there is therefore no evidence whatsoever that melting of the Greenland ice sheet was not just as great back then.
Here we go again. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has declared a 12-year climate "tipping point" in which we have to act in order to fight "global warming." See: Ocasio-Cortez on Millennials: 'We're Like the World Is Going to End in 12 Years if We Don't Address Climate Change' Ocasio-Cortez is only the latest activist to join [...]
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http://bit.ly/2FIaOAf Paul Matthews, Climate Scepticism Is it not rather worrying that the defense of the USA is in the hands of people who produce such garbage? A classic from the Guardian/Observer archives, from February 2004: The article is so absurd that it hardly needs any commentary. After explaining that Britain will be Siberian by next year [...]
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http://bit.ly/2FDMbo8 Julie Arblaster, Gerald A Meehl, Guomin Wand, SBS News Taken together, the evidence we present supports the idea that the rapid Antarctic sea ice decline in late 2016 was largely due to natural climate variability. Research has found that natural events could be to blame for Antarctica's sea ice reaching record lows. Sea ice [...]
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http://bit.ly/2FGnhEz Larry Kummer, Editor Economics, Politics Summary: The Green New Deal, most recently advocated by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, could start the biggest decade for government projects since the 1960's Great Society & Apollo. Big beyond most people's imagination. But it has received little critical analysis (other than calling it "socialism"). Here is a brief look at it, analytical, not political. [...]
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http://bit.ly/2S0DD0l EurActiv EU energy consumption is rising despite targets to reduce demand across Europe. It's 1992. The Republicans have been in the White House for 12 years. President George H. W. Bush Sr. has overseen victory in the Cold War and a wave of optimism for the future is sweeping across the world. What could possibly [...]
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http://bit.ly/2RYOkAO Global Warming Policy Forum Second ocean paper in three months is refuted by independent climate scientist Nicholas Lewis A scientific paper, published in Science magazine last week, led to widespread claims that the oceans were warming faster than previously thought, and received media attention around the world. But less than a week after the headlines, [...]
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What is Argo? Argo is a global array of 3,800 free-drifting profiling floats that measures thetemperature and salinity of the upper 2000 m of the ocean. This allows, for the first time, continuous monitoring of the temperature, salinity, and velocity of the upper ocean, with all data being relayed and made publicly available within hours after collection. Positions of the floats that have delivered data within the last 30 days :
Scientists deploy an Argo float. For over a decade, more than 3000 floats have provided near-global data coverage for the upper 2000 m of the ocean.

Update January 22, 2019
In a post at GWPF Nic Lewis critiques the Cheng et al. study and points in detail to the errors and misleading findings. His short analysis: Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought? – An analysis of Cheng et al (2019), Science . Excerpt in italics with my bolds.
Contrary to what the paper indicates:
Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago
Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.
Figure 1: Updated 0–2000 m OHC linear trend estimates compared with AR5 and the CMIP5 mean. Error bars are 90% confidence intervals; black lines are means. Units relate to the Earth's entire surface area.

Previous Post: Scare of the Day: Ocean Heat Content (January 11, 2019)
Here is a sample of yesterday's coordinated reports from CCN- Climate Crisis Network captured by my news aggregator, listed by the most recent first. Note the worldwide scope and editorial poetic license on the titles.
Ocean warming accelerating to record temperatures, scientists warn Engineering and Technology Magazine
Scalding seas? Oceans boil to hottest temp on record USA Today EU
World's oceans heating up at quickening pace: study Egypt Independent
Ocean warming 'accelerating' The London Economic
Oceans warming faster than we thought: Study AniNews.in
Ocean temperatures rising faster than thought in 'delayed response' to global warming, scientists say The Japan Times
Oceans warming much faster than previously thought: Study The Hindu Business Line
The Oceans Are Warming Faster Than We Thought, a New Study Says TIME
Oceans Warming Even Faster Than Previously Thought Eurasia Review
The Ocean Is Warming Much Faster Than We Thought, According To A New Study BuzzFeed
Pacific: New research proves ocean warming is accelerating ABC Online – Radio Australia
We're Boiling the Ocean Faster Than We Thought New York Magazine
Oceans warming faster than expected SBS
Ocean temperatures are rising far faster than previously thought, report says TVNZ
Ocean Temps Rising Faster Than Scientists Thought: Report HuffPost (US)
World's oceans are heating up at a quickening pace Bangkok Post
The Warming of the World's Oceans Is Set to Increase Dramatically Over the Next 60 Years Pacific Standard
New Climate Change Report Says Ocean Warming Is Far Worse Than Expected Fortune
Oceans Are Warming Faster Than Expected, Research Says Geek.com
World's oceans are heating up at a quickening pace: study AFP
Oceans Warming Faster Than Predicted, Scientists Say gCaptain
So the message to the world is very clear: Ocean Heat Content is rising out of control, Be Very Afraid!
The trigger for all of this concern comes from this paper How fast are the oceans warming? by Lijing Cheng, John Abraham, Zeke Hausfather, Kevin E. Trenberth. Science 11 Jan 2019 Excerpts from paper in italics with my bolds.
Climate change from human activities mainly results from the energy imbalance in Earth's climate system caused by rising concentrations of heat-trapping gases. About 93% of the energy imbalance accumulates in the ocean as increased ocean heat content (OHC). The ocean record of this imbalance is much less affected by internal variability and is thus better suited for detecting and attributing human influences (1) than more commonly used surface temperature records. Recent observation-based estimates show rapid warming of Earth's oceans over the past few decades (see the figure) (1, 2). This warming has contributed to increases in rainfall intensity, rising sea levels, the destruction of coral reefs, declining ocean oxygen levels, and declines in ice sheets; glaciers; and ice caps in the polar regions (3, 4). Recent estimates of observed warming resemble those seen in models, indicating that models reliably project changes in OHC.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), published in 2013 (4), featured five different time series of historical global OHC for the upper 700 m of the ocean. These time series are based on different choices for data processing (see the supplementary materials). Interpretation of the results is complicated by the fact that there are large differences among the series. Furthermore, the OHC changes that they showed were smaller than those projected by most climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) (5) over the period from 1971 to 2010 (see the figure).
Since then, the research community has made substantial progress in improving long-term OHC records and has identified several sources of uncertainty in prior measurements and analyses (2, 6–8). In AR5, all OHC time series were corrected for biases in expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data that had not been accounted for in the previous report (AR4). But these correction methods relied on very different assumptions of the error sources and led to substantial differences among correction schemes. Since AR5, the main factors influencing the errors have been identified (2), helping to better account for systematic errors in XBT data and their analysis.
Multiple lines of evidence from four independent groups thus now suggest a stronger observed OHC warming. Although climate model results (see the supplementary materials) have been criticized during debates about a "hiatus" or "slowdown" of global mean surface temperature, it is increasingly clear that the pause in surface warming was at least in part due to the redistribution of heat within the climate system from Earth surface into the ocean interiors (13). The recent OHC warming estimates (2, 6, 10, 11) are quite similar to the average of CMIP5 models, both for the late 1950s until present and during the 1971–2010 period highlighted in AR5 (see the figure). The ensemble average of the models has a linear ocean warming trend of 0.39 ± 0.07 W m−2 for the upper 2000 m from 1971–2010 compared with recent observations ranging from 0.36 to 0.39 W m−2 (see the figure).
MISSION ACCOMPLISHED: "The recent OHC warming estimates are quite similar to the average of CMIP5 models."
What They are Not Telling You
The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) record is a mature dataset, not without issues from changing measurement technologies, but providing a lengthy set of observations making up 71% of the surface temperature history. Sussing out temperatures at various depths in the ocean is a whole nother kettle of fish.
The Ocean Heat Content data is sparse, both in time and space.
The Ocean is vast, 360 million square kilometers with an average depth of 3700 meters, and we have 3900 Argo floats operating for 10 years. In addition we have some sensors arrayed at depths in the North Atlantic. As the text above admits, there are lots of holes in the data, and only a short history of the recently available reliable data. Other publications by some of the same authors admit: Large discrepancies are found in the percentage of basinal ocean heating related to the global ocean, with the largest differences in the Pacific and Southern Ocean. Meanwhile, we find a large discrepancy of ocean heat storage in different layers, especially within 300–700 m in the Pacific and Southern Oceans. Source: Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses, Gongjie Wang, Lijing Cheng, John Abraham.
Modelers Make OHC Reconstructions by Adding Guesstimates to Observations
Again climate science alarms are raised after "reanalysis" of the data. No one should be surprised that after computer manipulations and data processing, the "reanalyzed" data has changed and now favors warming and confirms the climate models. The Argo data record by itself is too short to make any such claim. In previous studies, scientists were more circumspect and refrained from "jumping the shark." Apparently, with the Paris Accord on the ropes in 2019, caution and nuance has been thrown to the wind, as witnessed by the recent SR15 horror show, and now this.
Methodological Problems Bedevil These Reconstructions
One of the studies cited in support of revising OHC upward is the study Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition, L. Resplandy et al. Published in Nature 31 October 2018. From the Media Release:
The world's oceans have absorbed far more heat than we realized, shortening our timeline to stop the causes of global warming, and foreboding some of the worst case scenarios put forth by climate experts, according to new findings.
A novel study by researchers from Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego and Princeton University, published on Wednesday in Nature, implies that officials have underestimated the amount of heat retained by Earth's oceans.
Between 1991 and 2016, oceans warmed an average 60 percent more than estimates by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) originally calculated, the study claims. That amount equalled 13 zettajoules, or eight times the world's annual energy consumption.
Something didn't look right to climate statistician Nic Lewis so he deconstructed the study, finding several methodological mistakes along the way. He explained and communicated with the authors in a series of 4 posts at Climate Etc. Nov. 6 through 23, 2018.
Nic Lewis, Nov. 6 (here):
The findings of the Resplandy et al paper were peer reviewed and published in the world's premier scientific journal and were given wide coverage in the English-speaking media. Despite this, a quick review of the first page of the paper was sufficient to raise doubts as to the accuracy of its results. Just a few hours of analysis and calculations, based only on published information, was sufficient to uncover apparently serious (but surely inadvertent) errors in the underlying calculations.
Moreover, even if the paper's results had been correct, they would not have justified its findings regarding an increase to 2.0°C in the lower bound of the equilibrium climate sensitivity range and a 25% reduction in the carbon budget for 2°C global warming.
Because of the wide dissemination of the paper's results, it is extremely important that these errors are acknowledged by the authors without delay and then corrected.
Authors Respond:
On November 14, 2018 this paper's authors announced key errors to the two week-old study that made claims about the amount of heat that Earth's oceans have absorbed. The errors stem from "incorrectly treating systematic errors in the O2 measurements and the use of a constant land O2:C exchange ratio of 1.1," co-author Ralph Keeling said in an update from Scripps Institution of Oceanography, which is affiliated with the study. More simply, the team's findings are too uncertain to conclusively support their statement that Earth's oceans have absorbed 60 percent more heat than previously thought. Keeling claims the errors "do not invalidate the study's methodology or the new insights into ocean biogeochemistry on which it is based."
Subsequent posts by Lewis found other differences between the stated method and the analysis actually applied, adding to the uncertainty of the study and its finding. Lewis is not done yet, and the paper has not been reissued. Unfortunately, it has not been retracted and is still cited in reference to unsupported claims of runaway ocean heat content.
Meanwhile, other measurements, such as those in North Atlantic and Indian Ocean show slight cooling rather than warming, with researchers suspecting natural cyclical activity.
Summary
So anxious are alarmists/activists to cry wolf that they are running the computers flat out to manipulate and extrapolate from precious but incomplete limited data to confirm their suppositions. All to keep alive a deflating narrative that the public increasingly finds offensive.
Footnote:
Oceanographers know that deep ocean temperatures can vary on centennial up to millennial time scales, so if some heat goes into the depths, it is not at all clear when it would come out.
Beware getting sucked into any model, climate or otherwise.
More at Putting Climate Models in Their Place


By Paul Homewood
NoTricks covers a new paper that demonstrates that recent warming has been due to natural factors, and that we are now entering a new deep cooling period:
Brothers and sisters: There are different kinds of spiritual gifts but the same Spirit; there are different forms of service but the same Lord; there are different workings but the same God who produces all of them in everyone. To each individual the manifestation of the Spirit is given for some benefit. To one is given through the Spirit the expression of wisdom; to another, the expression of knowledge according to the same Spirit; to another, faith by the same Spirit; to another, gifts of healing by the one Spirit; to another, mighty deeds; to another, prophecy; to another, discernment of spirits; to another, varieties of tongues; to another, interpretation of tongues. But one and the same Spirit produces all of these, distributing them individually to each person as he wishes.
Christians are obliged to believe this. God did not hand out aptitude, intelligence, and ability equally. Why this is so is His business. Therefore, Equality is false. It follows immediately that to call the unequal distribution of talents "unfair" is idiotic, or, if you like, sinful.
It is obvious, even to non-Christians, that not every person is born with the same set of equipment. This is, of course, denied by some, because they are under the sway of Equality, the theory. They believe and love the theory. This love is, in fact, the only evidence for the theory. All Reality speaks against it. No positive evidence has ever been in favor of it. It is therefore irrational to believe in Equality. But Love is often irrational. So we will assume below, at least for the sake of argument, that Equality is false.
Now I still owe my article (half finished; been swamped) on IQ and intelligence, but I will give you (without proof here) some of its conclusions. Intelligence is not, and cannot be, entirely biological. This follows from the immateriality of the intellect and will. Accepting this (for now), it follows that genetics and evolution will never provide complete explanations of intelligence and other mental abilities. Scores on tests of questions thought clever (inside a culture) will only explain a fraction of intelligence and other abilities. Statistical summaries of those scores, with some being labeled things like 'g', underestimate variability. Correlates of test scores and genes use wee p-values as evidence. Over-certainty abounds. Which will come as no surprise to regular readers.
Yet it is also true that over-certainty is not no-certainty. Many things are perfectly clear, such as the consistent, long-running differences in performance on certain tests and other performance measures between American blacks and Asians. (The reverse is true for physical abilities.) We can call race those groups with which we self identify. By "differences" I mean, take a man from each race and knowing only the race of both, there is a better than fifty percent chance that the Asian would outscore the black. After we measure both men, race no longer matters.
The question is why do these differences exist? Are Asians and blacks equal in mental abilities—-and here I mean "on average", as should be clear—but the Asians are racist and somehow have powers to apply their racism and keep blacks from performing at their true level? Or do blacks simply refuse to assimilate, not caring about the kinds of material that go into these tests? Perhaps a third group is tamping blacks down or elevating Asians. But if that's so, then this third group must be credited with having the smarts to impose its will in such a profound way; meaning this third group has provided additional evidence of its superiority in at least these dimensions.
Whatever the answer is, we can't tell from the data on scores (and race) alone. Cause isn't in data, as we have been preaching. We have to look outside.
Some look to genes. There are obvious genetic and outward differences between peoples of different races, so it is plausible, and in no way ruled out by any theory of biology (except Equality), that inward differences can exist, too. We have already admitted that much of this evidence is necessarily incomplete and exaggerated, based on flawed metaphysics and statistics, so it's not clear how a systematic re-doing of all measures in the predictive way it would all shake out.
It is clear, though, that the possibility is real, albeit of smaller effect than previously considered. Which makes the case of James Watson interesting. The man is near death and wields no influence anywhere, but the mob is baying for his blood, again, because he suggested what must almost certainly be true to some extent.
It is, of course, a political matter whether such information as genetics differences in mental abilities by races is useful or how this information should be acted upon. That it can be suppressed by bullying is true to an extent. It is not hard to imagine geneticists in these fields wearing false moustaches. But that it is suppressed only serves to make it more fascinating, and the differences prone to exaggeration (if only to make a point).
None of this would be really important except for the race war our elites seem intent on forcing upon us. This can only cause people to be forced to take sides. How dreadful.

Is the desire to promote climate alarm leading researchers to make mistakes?
Second ocean paper in three months is refuted by independent climate scientist Nicholas Lewis, reports The GWPF.
– – –
A scientific paper, published in Science magazine last week, led to widespread claims that the oceans were warming faster than previously thought, and received media attention around the world.
But less than a week after the headlines, an independent scientist, Nicholas Lewis, has found that a team led by Lijing Cheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, had made what he calls important factual errors.
Lewis also says that some of Cheng's statements are "misleading".
As Lewis explains:
The headlines all said that the oceans were warming even faster than previously thought. Unfortunately, the authors seem to have made several quite important errors and inappropriate comparisons. Ocean warming appears to be very much in line with earlier IPCC estimates, when correctly calculated, and slower over the last decade or so than predicted by climate models"
Continued here.

Many researchers have focused on controlling pest insects and vectors by natural products because of their low environmental pollution. The present study was conducted to evaluate the antioxidant and larvicidal activities of chloroform and methanol extracts of the leaves, fruits, roots, and isolated coumarin compounds (prantschimgin, oxypeucedanin, and 6-hydroxymethylherniarin) of Ferulago trifida from the Apiaceae family against Anopheles stephensi as one of the main malaria vectors. For insecticidal evaluation, A. stephensi larvae were exposed to different concentrations of the extracts and pure compounds (0.625–1280 ppm) according to the WHO protocol. The mortality percentages were measured 24 h after treatment and lethal concentration values were calculated. In addition, radical scavenging activities of the mentioned extracts and compounds were measured by the DPPH method. The methanol extract of fruits showed potent insecticidal properties with LC50 and LC90 values of 2.94 and 18.12 ppm, respectively. The chloroform extracts of the fruits and leaves were the second and third extracts with larvicidal effects. Among pure compounds, only oxypeucedanin showed moderate toxicity against A. stephensi with LC50 and LC90 values of 116.54 and 346.41 ppm, respectively. The antioxidant activities of the methanol extracts of leaves and fruits were stronger than other extracts with IC50 values of 155.83 and 159.32 ppm, respectively. In conclusion, the methanol extract of F. trifida fruits can be used as a potent bio-insecticide in green control programs of mosquitoes, especially A. stephensi.
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